164
FXUS64 KTSA 210519
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A couple of renegade showers continue across southeast Oklahoma early
this evening. This activity will dissipate over the next hour or so.
Current forecast for tonight is on track with only a few adjustments
made to better reflect current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Spotty showers will continue to impact parts of eastern Oklahoma
through the afternoon before dying off early this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. A couple rumbles of thunder cannot be
ruled out, but the main concern will be for brief heavy downpours
for those lucky enough to experience a shower overhead. Otherwise,
warm and humid conditions will prevail under partly cloudy skies
and light winds, making it feel rather muggy out there. Another
mild night is in store, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the area.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The upper ridge currently across the eastern CONUS is still on
track to shift westward through the weekend and become centered
over the Southern Plains by Saturday afternoon. The result will
be increasing temperatures and decreasing rain chances through the
weekend. Highs will once again be near normal in the lower to mid
90s tomorrow as mid level cloud cover associated with Alberto hangs
around the area through midday. By Saturday however, temperatures
are expected to reach into the upper 90s with some triple digit
heat not out of the question across parts of eastern Oklahoma and
into the Arkansas River Valley of western Arkansas. A mid level
trough will then traverse the Northern Plains Saturday night into
SUnday and may force a weakening boundary into far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early Sunday. At the least, this
boundary should provide a little more cloud cover along with a low
chance for a few showers/storms Sunday morning. This will likely
keep temperatures down a few degrees across the eastern half of
the forecast area on Sunday, while the rest of the area sees highs
around 100 again on Sunday The boundary will quickly become
washed out by Sunday evening and any rain chances look to be
minimal under the influence of the upper ridge through Monday.

By the middle of next week, guidance continues to indicate that
the ridge will shift southwest and some modest mid level northerly
flow aloft develops over the region. This will bring netter
chances for more organized thunderstorm development, especially
across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Increasing cloud
cover and rain chances should also provide a slight cooldown to
the heat through the rest of the period. Toward the latter part of
next week a stronger trough is forecast to dive into the eastern
CONUS and possibly bring a stronger frontal boundary into the
region with below normal temps and more widespread rain chances
associated with this system if it pans out.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period for all sites.
Spotty MVFR conditions may develop briefly during the morning
hours but any flight impacts should remain isolated and short-
lived. Southerly sfc winds increase during the day, but generally
remain below 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  74  96  78 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   94  73  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   91  70  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   92  70  96  75 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   91  68  93  73 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   91  69  92  73 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   91  70  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   90  71  92  75 /   0   0   0  20
F10   90  69  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   89  70  92  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...43