963
FXUS64 KTSA 120535
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 826 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A fairly quiet night is on tap, featuring light winds and
seasonable overnight temperatures. Mainly high cloud cover
currently atop the region this evening will continue to shift
south and eastward through the night, bringing mostly clear skies
by daybreak tomorrow. The going forecast has things well handled,
and no update is planned this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Overall conditions will be trending in the direction of summertime
as upper ridge expands over the southern states and surface high
moves off to the east allowing s warmer and more humid airmass
to expand over the region the next few days. NBM seems under-done
at this time and have trended dew point temps more toward higher
CONSMOS values. Combined with daytime highs in the low/mid 90s,
will begin to see Heat Index values around 100 in many areas,
possibly as early as Thursday.

Overall precipitation chances will remain low in this pattern,
however both Thursday night and Saturday night could see at least
a low chance of storms moving into northern parts of the area.
Thursday night convection along a frontal boundary in the Central
Plains could eventually make a run at northeast OK, but given the
expanding upper ridge this appears unlikely at this time. A few
storms associated with an upper wave moving out of the Rockies
this weekend could also flirt with northeast OK Saturday night or
Sunday morning. The ridge axis should be pushed far enough east
by early next week to allow a surge of deeper Gulf moisture into
the area for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Few to scattered high clouds and light winds should persist
through tonight over the CWA. The exception to this will be across
far Northwest Arkansas where some patchy areas of LIFR visibility
have begun to develop. This will remain possible into the morning
hours Wednesday. During the day Wednesday...high clouds are
forecast to exit with scattered diurnal mid clouds developing for
the afternoon hours. Winds for Wednesday are forecast to return
out of the south for most locations. Other than the potential
reduced visibility in far Northwest Arkansas tonight...VFR
conditions are forecast for the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  94  72  96 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   67  94  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   67  92  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   67  94  70  94 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   64  91  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   64  91  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   67  91  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   66  91  69  91 /   0   0  10   0
F10   67  91  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  90  66  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20