263
FXUS64 KTSA 131519
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1019 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Quiet weather is expected through the afternoon with clear skies
and high temps generally in the lower/ mid 90s across the area.
Heat indices will likely max out in the upper 90s/ near 100 across
E OK & AR River valley. Aside from some minor adjustments to
winds, the current forecast is on track and no significant
deviations are anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies and
increasing southerly winds. Cold front extending from central MO
through western KS by early evening will be a focus for storm
development. These storms will spread east and south through the
evening and may move into areas near the OK/KS border as they
steadily weaken. Confidence remains low in both coverage and
southward extent of any storms and most areas are likely to remain
dry through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The cold front / thunderstorm outflow boundary will likely slide
into portions of NE OK / far NW AR on Friday before steadily
losing definition. The boundary will likely pool a corridor of
higher dewpoints and resultant higher afternoon heat index
readings. Additionally, isolated storms are possible along the
boundary but, again, confidence remains low in both storm
development and overall coverage.

Shortwave trough passes across the central CONUS late Saturday
into early Sunday. The majority of storms associated with this
feature are expected to be north of local region with a low chance
extending across northeast OK. Upper ridge centers over the SE
CONUS by Monday with strengthening southerly flow on its periphery
drawing deeper moisture northward into the region. Isolated to
scattered afternoon storms are expected both Monday and Tuesday
and primarily across far E OK / NW AR. High temps will cool a few
degrees from previous days but remain above mid June normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Few to scattered mid and high clouds are forecast to
develop/spread into the CWA during the day today. A slight chance
of storms for Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas after
00z as storms try to develop along a frontal boundary stretched
across Kansas. At this time will continue to keep a mention out of
the TAFs due to limited coverage and uncertainty of convection
reaching/impacting any one terminal. Thus...few to scattered high
clouds are forecast overnight. Winds through the period increase
out of the south to southwest during the day and become light
again tonight. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  71  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   91  68  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   93  68  94  69 /   0  20  10  10
FYV   91  66  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   91  67  92  70 /   0  20  20  20
MKO   91  69  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   91  69  91  70 /   0  20  20  20
F10   91  68  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   89  67  93  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...43
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20