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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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771 FXUS64 KTSA 091903 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 203 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon ) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Regional surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from north of Fort Smith and extending to north of McAlester, and this feature also shows up well in vis satellite. Airmass along and south of the boundary is seasonably unstable, but weak convergence along the boundary and relatively warm mid level temps have kept any storm development limited thus far. A mid level wave moving southeast across Kansas may provide forcing to overcome these limitations into this evening, and thus will see isolated to scattered storms eventually develop in the frontal zone as it continues to gradually push south. Weak wind fields will likely keep the severe threat minimal, though a few downbursts are possible. Somewhat higher probability of this ill be over west central AR where slightly stronger mid-level flow reside. Storms should be slow moving and as such, there will be a local threat of heavy rainfall. Some storms could linger farther south through at least part of tonight as the frontal zone drops farther south. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A drier and more stable airmass will be with us for a couple of days early this week, with minimal storms chances Monday. A weak wave in northwest flow is forecast to move from western OK into east TX Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps close enough for an isolated storm threat across parts of eastern OK. Beyond that, summer starts to creep back in with rising mid-level heights and sfc winds returning from the south, equaling hotter and humid conditions through the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A cold front will pass through the area today. For terminals behind the front in northeast OK, additional precipitation is unlikely (10% chance). However, CIGs of 2-5 kft will prevail through the afternoon before lifting and breaking up in the evening. Winds will be out of the northeast at 5-15 kts. For northwest AR, scattered showers and storms will persist through the afternoon before ending. CIGs of 2-5 kft will break up later this evening. The same can be expected for terminals in southeast OK, but the timing will be shifted. Storms will develop later this afternoon and into the evening, with CIGs lifting and breaking up overnight. Winds will shift to northeast in these areas as well over the next couple of hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 60 85 61 87 / 20 0 0 10 FSM 65 86 63 86 / 40 0 0 10 MLC 65 84 62 85 / 30 10 0 10 BVO 56 84 57 86 / 10 0 0 10 FYV 57 83 58 84 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 55 80 56 82 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 61 83 61 83 / 30 0 0 10 MIO 54 81 56 83 / 10 0 0 0 F10 62 82 61 83 / 30 0 0 20 HHW 67 82 63 83 / 30 20 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...06