Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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254 FXUS64 KTSA 171849 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 149 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon / tonight ) Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Scattered CU has developed this afternoon, keeping temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. However, with the increasing south winds, dewpoints have have crept up. Heat indices are forecast to top out around the century mark. A few isolated showers have develop and an isolated storm or two can not be ruled out across SE OK/NW AR, but precip coverage will be very limited at best. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Remnants of tropical system, currently developing in the Bay of Campeche, is expected to shift west over Mexico/south Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. Although a few isolated storms will again be possible across far SE OK/NW AR Tuesday afternoon, most locations will not receive any appreciable rainfall. With the increase in cloud cover, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler through the middle part of the week and have undercut NBM a few degrees, closer to MOS guidance. Upper ridge begins to build back into the southern Plains Thursday into Friday with hot/humid conditions returning to much of the region. Heat indices are forecast to climb back into the 100-103 degree range Saturday afternoon. Ridge does however begin to break down/shift west over the weekend, potentially allowing a weak cold front to move into the area Saturday night into Sunday with at least scattered showers/thunderstorms possible. Soil conditions continue to dry out, especially across northeast Oklahoma, where very little rainfall has occurred over the past two weeks. Light west/northwest flow aloft will hopefully persist into the early part of next week with a least low rain chances continuing. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A brief period of MVFR cigs is possible across the NW AR sites early in the period, otherwise VFR TAF elements will prevail throughout the valid period at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 89 73 87 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 75 90 73 87 / 10 20 0 10 MLC 73 87 71 85 / 10 10 0 10 BVO 73 90 71 88 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 71 87 69 85 / 10 20 0 10 BYV 71 87 69 84 / 0 20 0 10 MKO 73 88 72 85 / 0 10 0 10 MIO 73 88 71 87 / 0 0 0 10 F10 73 87 71 85 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 72 87 71 82 / 10 10 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...23