771
FXUS64 KTSA 251537
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1037 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1033 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Small scale wave across south central KS has helped maintain an
area of weak convection through the morning though a steady
decrease in coverage has occurred with eastward advance. This wave
will make slow progress eastward and may aid isolated convection
later today across NE OK and possibly far NW AR, but overall
coverage is expected to remain very low. Dewpoint trends are
running several degrees higher than forecast and the update will
address these trends. This will impact heat index forecasts and
should these higher values remain place into the afternoon then
portions of the heat advisory may need to be upgraded.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Predominantly "chance" PoPs persist for far E OK/ NW AR Wednesday
morning and afternoon to account for any ongoing convection &
redevelopment along the front during the day. Another wave is
forecast to move across C Plains Wednesday night into Thursday with
additional precip chances north and west of our area. Currently do
not expect this activity to impact our CWA, but this will need to be
watched as additional short term guidance becomes available for the
coming forecasts. Otherwise, low PoPs return this weekend as another
frontal boundary attempts to influence the region. Positive height
anomalies expand back into our area next week.

Regarding the heat... opted to issue another Heat Advisory on
Wednesday for parts of E OK and W-Central AR as heat indices are
again forecast to climb between 105-110 degrees. Convection may
complicate things, especially across AR counties, but with heat
indices forecast to approach warning criteria if left undisturbed in
the pre-frontal environment, felt an advisory was appropriate.
Thursday will feature slightly lower heat index values with drier
(and slightly cooler) air behind the front. However the intense heat
returns Friday into the weekend with increasing potential for
additional heat headlines. Above average temps are expected into
next week with highs in the 90s/ lower 100s and lows mainly in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Sfc wind gusts after 15z with 20-25 kts expected at times for all sites except
KFSM and KBVO. Storm chances will increase mainly after 06z for parts of NE OK and
NW AR, however coverage appears too low to include a mention with this issuance.
Otherwise, VFR TAF elements to prevail at all sites through the valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  78  99  74 /  10  30  20   0
FSM   99  78  97  76 /  10  20  50  10
MLC   97  78  97  74 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   99  73  96  69 /  20  30  10   0
FYV   96  72  93  69 /  10  20  50   0
BYV   96  71  91  68 /  20  30  60   0
MKO   96  77  96  73 /  10  20  30  10
MIO   96  73  93  69 /  20  40  30   0
F10   96  76  97  72 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   95  76  96  75 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...23