377
FXUS64 KTSA 170235
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
935 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

No significant changes were required to the forecast this evening.
NW AR and far E OK still appear most favorable for fog development
late tonight, especially in the typically favored valleys. Fog may
become locally dense in areas, but widespread visibility reductions
are not expected. While brief, shallow fog may develop
elsewhere in the CWA, antecedent drier conditions should limit
coverage and visibility reductions. Overnight lows will generally
range between the lower and mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Still some lingering impact from "Francine" as the remnant low
continues to meander across the lower MS valley, all the while
weakening. Thus a few showers remain possible across parts of
western AR into the evening. The residual impact of moisture
along with clearing skies does imply some fog potential tonight
for most of western AR into some of eastern OK. While no strong
signal is present in the data for widespread impacts, some locally
significant reductions to visibility in normally more fog-prone
locations is implied.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Tuesday will see one more relatively okay weather day before
summer makes a late rally that persists through most of the week
and possibly into the weekend. A prolonged blocking pattern
featuring an expanding ridge over the central states results in
rising temperatures and some increase in in humidity as well.

Current expectation remains that the upper trough currently moving
through the Great Basin will lift off to the northeast. This may
provide a brief glancing blow of forcing over the northwestern
sections of the forecast area by Tue night or Wed morning, but
most associated storm chances will likely remain to the northwest.
A second trough is then forecast to essentially replace the first
one in the southwest, in effect re-enforcing the strong ridge
over the Southern Plains. This should result in much above normal
temperatures for Thu and Fri, with some locations of northeast OK
making a run at the century mark.

BY the weekend the later trough should being to make its move,
however the trends do not favor a significant impact on our
weather at this time. Forecast will maintain lower-end chance of
thunderstorms beginning Friday night, with a modest "cool-down"
(still above normal) into early next week. No real fall weather
anytime soon it would appear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop overnight at NW AR TAF
sites. Additional lower ceilings are expected across far
southeast Oklahoma, spreading into the MLC area late tonight.
Still some uncertainty regarding dense fog development across NW
AR, but will continue with TEMPO groups for IFR/LIFR late tonight
into Tuesday morning across aforementioned area. VFR conditions
expected at all terminals by 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  66  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   83  68  88  67 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   87  65  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   90  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   81  63  86  63 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   79  62  85  62 /  40  10   0   0
MKO   84  65  85  66 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   86  63  88  65 /  10   0   0   0
F10   86  65  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   87  67  85  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...43
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...12