225
FXUS64 KTSA 221903
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thru Tonight)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Another hot and humid day is ongoing beneath ridging aloft. The
breezy southwest winds ahead of a weak cold front across KS may be
helping with the heat. As this boundary approaches the KS state
line later this evening, it could set off a few showers or maybe a
storm. Hard to believe with 90s over 70s, but instability is weak
per balmy H5 temps around -3C so the atmosphere over NE OK isn`t
exactly dying to convect. Per latest CAM runs will keep
mentionable PoPs out of the forecast area.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A sw-ne oriented low level thermal ridge is extending east into
the lower Plains ahead of the weak front today and will drop
south over the forecast area on Sunday. This will allow afternoon
high temps to climb to near the century mark for the first time in
2024 in several areas along/near the Arkansas River valley with at
least upper 90s for nearby areas of east-central and northeast
OK. The weak front from this evening will sink south and stall
over the area on Sunday, but will not provide any cooling and may
just make things worse as moisture pools along the boundary. The
heat and humidity will push afternoon heat indices to advisory
levels and have thus issued a heat advisory for Sunday afternoon.
Data suggests some potential for isolated showers and storms over
western AR and neighboring far eastern OK, so some low mentionable
PoPs were added. I wouldn`t hold my breath though. Low level
thermal fields remain toasty on Monday and Tuesday, so expect more
heat headlines.

The trend in the data for the front and associated shower/storm
chances Tuesday night into Wednesday has been toward less
aggressive in both PoPs and temps. There may not be much relief
from the heat from this system. The mid-level ridge shifts west
only briefly, and quickly rebuilds back overhead.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR anticipated to prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24
hours. Breezy/gusty southwest winds will subside by or just after
sunset this evening, with gusts 20-25 knots. A weak cold front
will approach from the north overnight tonight or early Sunday
morning. An isolated shower/storm or two cannot be ruled out
along or near the OK/KS border in the vicinity of the frontal
boundary, but chances are too low to include in TAFs. Winds will
shift more WNW to N behind the boundary by sunrise at NE OK and
far NW AR terminals.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  99  79 100 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   78  99  78 100 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   76  97  76  97 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   75  98  72 100 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   74  96  72  97 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   76  94  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   78  97  77  97 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   76  94  75  97 /  10  10   0  10
F10   77  97  76  97 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   74  96  75  97 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ054>057-
     059>062-064-066-067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67