835
FXUS64 KTSA 271725
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Today will feature a minor break in the heat compared to the past
several days. Most forecast parameters look good at the moment,
however current dew point trends do favor higher values than NBM
and closer to NAM12 values. Have adjusted dew points up a few
degrees, though this still keeps Heat Index values below 100 for
the most part. Different story tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Isolated convection may affect parts of mainly northeast Oklahoma
late tonight/early Friday morning and again late Friday
night/early Saturday morning. Otherwise, the heat will return for
Friday and Saturday with the excessive heat watch continuing for
parts of northeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon. Much of the rest of
the area will likely need heat headlines as well both Friday and
Saturday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up late Saturday and
especially Saturday night and Sunday as a weak frontal boundary
pushes south into the area. Much of the area will see another
brief respite from the heat again Sunday as a result.

The heat will return in full force early next week, although the
NBM numbers look a bit excessive especially given recent and
possible future rainfall. Lowered afternoon highs slightly as a
result early next week, but heat headlines will likely be needed
again regardless.

Another weak frontal boundary will increase shower and storm
chances again later next week, likely just in time for the
Independence Day holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. There
remains a small chance that a weakening cluster of thunderstorms
could move across southern Kansas and potentially into parts of
far northeast OK late tonight and early Friday morning, but
probability of significant impacts at any site are 20% or less.
South winds will increase mid-morning Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  77  98  81 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   94  71  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  74  96  78 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   92  73  98  77 /  10  20  20  20
FYV   91  69  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   90  68  95  75 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   92  73  95  78 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   91  72  94  77 /   0  10  10  20
F10   91  73  96  77 /   0  10  10   0
HHW   92  71  93  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for OKZ055-056-060>062-066-067-070.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14