197
FXUS64 KTSA 230216
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
916 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

True cold front entering NE OK this evening, though at this
time most of the precip is associated with an outflow boundary
further south. Main updates will be for PoPs- with focus through 06z
on latest trends which will keep highest PoPs over east central
Oklahoma. After 06z, several model solutions continue with additional
development back to the north as a little bit of elevated instability
coincides with the 850mb boundary. Coverage is a bit uncertain, especially
in the 09z-12z period, so have opted to trim back from categorical
PoPs with this update. Will also keep thunder mention to just chance.
Overnight low temperatures look reasonable as they reflect cooler air
infiltrating the region overnight.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
Monday morning across much of the forecast area. Precipitation
chances will gradually end west-to-east through the day, with
chances exiting the area by mid-late evening. Rain and cloud cover
will keep daytime temperatures very cool on Monday, with
widespread highs generally in the 70s. More sunshine and drier
weather will warm daytime temperatures up into the mid-upper 70s
and lower 80s on Tuesday, remaining below seasonal average.
Likewise, overnight lows will be near or a few degrees below
seasonal average through the long term.

Models and ensembles continue to indicate a secondary upper-level
trough/cut-off low developing and digging south over the Southern
Plains (OK/AR region) late Tuesday-Wednesday which will likely
produce additional chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Unfortunately, there is still high uncertainty with regards to
timing and evolution of this upper-level feature in the global
models and ensembles. To make matters more complicated, models
also want to develop a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico by
midweek, tracking northward and making landfall somewhere in the
northern Gulf coast by late week. This potential tropical system
may also dictate how the upper-level low tracks and potentially
may ingest an abundance of tropical moisture,
affecting/influencing precipitation chances by the end of the week
and into next week. Better details to come in later forecasts.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Aviation conditions will continue to deteriorate overnight as a cold
front, currently located just north of I-44 continues to slowly
push south tonight. Several rounds over rain with embedded thunderstorms
are expected overnight through Monday morning before the heavier
precipitation shifts east of NW AR terminals around noon. Ceiling
will continue to fall behind front with IFR conditions likely
with FROPA across NE OK spreading into SE OK late tonight. Models
hint a weak surface low developing along frontal boundary across
NW AR Monday morning. Ceiling heights / visibilities will likely
be erratic at those terminals before lower clouds/IFR conditions
spread into the region Monday afternoon on backside of departing
low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  72  57  79 /  70  60  10  10
FSM   72  80  62  81 /  60  80  20  10
MLC   64  75  57  83 /  70  80  10  10
BVO   58  71  53  80 /  60  40   0  10
FYV   65  75  58  76 /  70  80  20  10
BYV   66  75  60  76 /  70  80  40  10
MKO   64  72  57  79 /  80  80  10  10
MIO   61  70  57  76 /  60  70  10  10
F10   61  72  55  81 /  90  70  10  10
HHW   69  80  60  86 /  40  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...12