Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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405 FXUS64 KTSA 180303 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1003 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 1001 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 An area of showers and thunderstorms moved north into parts of western Arkansas earlier this evening but have since dissipated. Dry weather will prevail for the rest of the night with some increase in low cloudiness towards morning. No forecast update is planned at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Remnants of tropical system, currently developing in the Bay of Campeche, is expected to shift west over Mexico/south Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. Although a few isolated storms will again be possible across far SE OK/NW AR Tuesday afternoon, most locations will not receive any appreciable rainfall. With the increase in cloud cover, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler through the middle part of the week and have undercut NBM a few degrees, closer to MOS guidance. Upper ridge begins to build back into the southern Plains Thursday into Friday with hot/humid conditions returning to much of the region. Heat indices are forecast to climb back into the 100-103 degree range Saturday afternoon. Ridge does however begin to break down/shift west over the weekend, potentially allowing a weak cold front to move into the area Saturday night into Sunday with at least scattered showers/thunderstorms possible. Soil conditions continue to dry out, especially across northeast Oklahoma, where very little rainfall has occurred over the past two weeks. Light west/northwest flow aloft will hopefully persist into the early part of next week with a least low rain chances continuing. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours. There could be brief MVFR cigs early-mid Tuesday morning, especially at the AR sites, but not enough confidence to include in TAFs at this time. Breezy/gusty southerly winds will persist through much of the TAF period, with gusts 25-30 knots late Tuesday morning and through the afternoon. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 89 73 87 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 75 90 73 87 / 10 20 0 10 MLC 73 87 71 85 / 10 10 0 10 BVO 73 90 71 88 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 71 87 69 85 / 10 20 0 10 BYV 71 87 69 84 / 0 20 0 10 MKO 73 88 72 85 / 0 10 0 10 MIO 73 88 71 87 / 0 0 0 10 F10 73 87 71 85 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 72 87 71 82 / 10 10 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...67