Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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075 FXUS64 KTSA 180641 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Yet another seasonably hot and humid day is on tap across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas today, although much like yesterday, continued breezy conditions should take the edge off the heat to some degree. Low clouds currently expanding across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas should persist into mid morning before diminishing toward midday. Deeper moisture in southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas could support another day with isolated thunderstorm development, with the best chance being during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 For overall messaging purposes, the expectations for the rest of the week, the weekend and into early next week remain the same, with a relative minimum in afternoon temperatures mid week, increasing temperatures for the weekend and low thunderstorm chances late in the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Some uncertainty continues regarding how much of an impact the tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico will have on the forecast area - mainly in the form of increased cloud cover and associated temperature reduction. There is a good chance that spots in southeast Oklahoma stay in the 80s on Wednesday due to this. Toward the weekend, upper level high pressure looks to build into the region, bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Triple digit heat index values look probable, with some potential for at least one day featuring heat indices supportive of heat headlines. The more likely time period for headlines would be late in the weekend and into early next week, as moisture increases in association with a weakness in the upper level high that should also lead to the low thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Mostly clear conditions with breezy south winds are expected for most areas for the remainder of tonight. One area of low clouds has developed near KFYV, and could potentially persist and/or expand into nearby terminals but confidence in this outcome is low. However, low clouds will likely develop for the eastern OK terminals Tuesday morning, with occasionally broken CIGs down to 3 kft or so. These clouds will thin and break up during the afternoon. Most areas will be dry, but there is a 10-20% chance of a shower during the afternoon hours for the northwest AR terminals. Winds will remain breezy and out of the south through the day Tuesday with gusts of 20-30 kts possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 91 74 91 72 / 0 0 10 0 FSM 91 73 90 73 / 20 10 10 0 MLC 90 72 89 70 / 10 0 10 0 BVO 90 72 90 67 / 0 10 10 0 FYV 87 70 88 67 / 20 10 10 0 BYV 88 68 88 67 / 20 10 10 0 MKO 89 72 88 71 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 90 71 90 69 / 0 10 10 0 F10 89 71 88 69 / 0 0 10 10 HHW 88 71 86 72 / 10 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...06