184
FXUS64 KTSA 230531
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 904 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Weak front remains north of the OK/KS border and while a few
storms continue along the boundary in south central KS, chances
of any additional development into NE OK tonight remain less than
15%. Overall forecast looks good and no updates will be sent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A sw-ne oriented low level thermal ridge is extending east into
the lower Plains ahead of the weak front today and will drop
south over the forecast area on Sunday. This will allow afternoon
high temps to climb to near the century mark for the first time in
2024 in several areas along/near the Arkansas River valley with at
least upper 90s for nearby areas of east-central and northeast
OK. The weak front from this evening will sink south and stall
over the area on Sunday, but will not provide any cooling and may
just make things worse as moisture pools along the boundary. The
heat and humidity will push afternoon heat indices to advisory
levels and have thus issued a heat advisory for Sunday afternoon.
Data suggests some potential for isolated showers and storms over
western AR and neighboring far eastern OK, so some low mentionable
PoPs were added. I wouldn`t hold my breath though. Low level
thermal fields remain toasty on Monday and Tuesday, so expect more
heat headlines.

The trend in the data for the front and associated shower/storm
chances Tuesday night into Wednesday has been toward less
aggressive in both PoPs and temps. There may not be much relief
from the heat from this system. The mid-level ridge shifts west
only briefly, and quickly rebuilds back overhead.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions expected for all sites through the forecast period.
A weak boundary will tend to stall across NE OK/ NW AR today with
a period of LLWS predominantly between 09-12z in these areas.
Otherwise SCT mid/ high clouds expected through much of the
period with very low chances for some showers in the morning/
afternoon near the boundary. Sfc winds should mostly remain below
10 kts with light & variable conditions near the boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  79 100  80 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   99  78 100  78 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   97  76  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   98  72 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   96  72  97  73 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   94  73  97  74 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   97  77  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   94  75  97  76 /  10   0  10   0
F10   97  76  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   96  75  97  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>057-059>062-064-066-067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43