267
FXUS64 KTSA 151740
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1023 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Partly to mostly sunny conditions are expected in most areas today
with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Winds will be somewhat breezy
at times and out of the east in response to a remnant circulation
across AR/MO. A few showers and very isolated storms could impact
the far eastern counties in the CWA (in northwest AR) but
otherwise dry conditions will be in store through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The western portion of the mid/upper level low pressure is
forecast to remain across Western Arkansas tonight into tomorrow
before retreating back eastward Monday night. Thus...the mid-level
deformation zone should remain west of the CWA tonight...while
rain chances continue overnight tonight and Monday for parts of
Western Arkansas. Marginal elevated instability looks to develop
during the day Monday which could allow for a limited thunder
potential with the rain chances.

The mid/upper level ridge moves over the CWA Tuesday in the wake
of the retreating broad area of low pressure...and ahead of a
longwave trof across the Western CONUS. A slight eastward movement
to the ridge and longwave trof is progged for Wednesday which
should put the CWA more on the western side of the ridge. Latest
model solutions continue to indicate a piece of vorticity ejecting
out from the parent longwave trof into the Central/Southern Plains
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Majority of this vort max should
remain north of the CWA...though the southern portion could allow
for slight to low end chance PoPs mainly northwest of Interstate
44 Wednesday.

During the second half of the week...the ridge is forecast to
become more amplified across the region while the longwave trof
slowly spreads eastward toward the Plains. This will allow for
warmer and more humid conditions to return Thursday and Friday
with high temps of upper 80s to mid 90s forecast. The longwave
trof...with latest model runs...now is forecast to move out into
the Plains over the weekend with a frontal boundary approaching
the CWA. Shower and thunderstorm chances return during the day
Friday and continue into the weekend with this approaching wave.
This time period will continue to be monitored as details continue
to be determined.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For eastern Oklahoma...VFR conditions are expected today and
tonight with mostly sunny skies and light easterly winds mostly 10
kts or less. Areas of low clouds in the 2-4 kft layer may develop
Monday morning, with a 10-20% of MVFR ceilings developing for a
few hours.

For northwest and west-central AR...SCT to occasionally BKN cloud
coverage will continue through the day in the 2.5-5 kft layer with
light east winds. There is a 10% of a shower for any of the
terminals this afternoon, but this is too low to include in the
TAFs. Low clouds and possibly areas of patchy fog will develop
again Monday morning, mostly in the 2-4 kft range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   68  84  67  89 /  10  20   0   0
MLC   65  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   64  90  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   64  83  62  86 /  10  20   0   0
BYV   65  81  61  86 /  20  30  10   0
MKO   65  87  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
F10   64  88  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   66  88  67  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06