570
FXUS64 KTSA 180535
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

An area of showers and thunderstorms moved north into parts of
western Arkansas earlier this evening but have since dissipated.
Dry weather will prevail for the rest of the night with some
increase in low cloudiness towards morning. No forecast update is
planned at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Remnants of tropical system, currently developing in the Bay of
Campeche, is expected to shift west over Mexico/south Texas
Tuesday into Wednesday. Although a few isolated storms will again
be possible across far SE OK/NW AR Tuesday afternoon, most
locations will not receive any appreciable rainfall. With the
increase in cloud cover, temperatures are expected to be a few
degrees cooler through the middle part of the week and have
undercut NBM a few degrees, closer to MOS guidance.

Upper ridge begins to build back into the southern Plains Thursday
into Friday with hot/humid conditions returning to much of the
region. Heat indices are forecast to climb back into the 100-103
degree range Saturday afternoon. Ridge does however begin to
break down/shift west over the weekend, potentially allowing a
weak cold front to move into the area Saturday night into Sunday
with at least scattered showers/thunderstorms possible.

Soil conditions continue to dry out, especially across northeast
Oklahoma, where very little rainfall has occurred over the past
two weeks. Light west/northwest flow aloft will hopefully persist
into the early part of next week with a least low rain chances
continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Mostly clear conditions with breezy south winds are expected for
most areas for the remainder of tonight. One area of low clouds
has developed near KFYV, and could potentially persist and/or
expand into nearby terminals but confidence in this outcome is
low. However, low clouds will likely develop for the eastern OK
terminals Tuesday morning, with occasionally broken CIGs down to 3
kft or so. These clouds will thin and break up during the
afternoon. Most areas will be dry, but there is a 10-20% chance of
a shower during the afternoon hours for the northwest AR terminals.
Winds will remain breezy and out of the south through the day
Tuesday with gusts of 20-30 kts possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  73  87  71 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   90  73  87  73 /  20   0  10   0
MLC   87  71  85  70 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   90  71  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   87  69  85  68 /  20   0  10   0
BYV   87  69  84  68 /  20   0  10   0
MKO   88  72  85  72 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   88  71  87  70 /   0   0  10   0
F10   87  71  85  70 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   87  71  82  71 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...06