254
FXUS64 KTSA 171849
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
149 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon / tonight )
Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Scattered CU has developed this afternoon, keeping temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. However,
with the increasing south winds, dewpoints have have crept up. Heat
indices are forecast to top out around the century mark. A few
isolated showers have develop and an isolated storm or two can not
be ruled out across SE OK/NW AR, but precip coverage will be very
limited at best.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Remnants of tropical system, currently developing in the Bay of
Campeche, is expected to shift west over Mexico/south Texas
Tuesday into Wednesday. Although a few isolated storms will again
be possible across far SE OK/NW AR Tuesday afternoon, most
locations will not receive any appreciable rainfall. With the
increase in cloud cover, temperatures are expected to be a few
degrees cooler through the middle part of the week and have
undercut NBM a few degrees, closer to MOS guidance.

Upper ridge begins to build back into the southern Plains Thursday
into Friday with hot/humid conditions returning to much of the
region. Heat indices are forecast to climb back into the 100-103
degree range Saturday afternoon. Ridge does however begin to
break down/shift west over the weekend, potentially allowing a
weak cold front to move into the area Saturday night into Sunday
with at least scattered showers/thunderstorms possible.

Soil conditions continue to dry out, especially across northeast
Oklahoma, where very little rainfall has occurred over the past
two weeks. Light west/northwest flow aloft will hopefully persist
into the early part of next week with a least low rain chances
continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A brief period of MVFR cigs is possible across the NW AR sites
early in the period, otherwise VFR TAF elements will prevail
throughout the valid period at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  89  73  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   75  90  73  87 /  10  20   0  10
MLC   73  87  71  85 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   73  90  71  88 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   71  87  69  85 /  10  20   0  10
BYV   71  87  69  84 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   73  88  72  85 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   73  88  71  87 /   0   0   0  10
F10   73  87  71  85 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   72  87  71  82 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...23