Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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304 FXUS64 KTSA 241730 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A few isolated showers/storms have developed across north-central OK this morning, west of the forecast area. This activity seems to have generated around the 700mb layer, where weak lifting is occurring in a zone of higher relative humidity. Will continue to monitor trends and will update PoPs, if necessary. However, the showers/storms chances should remain west of the area and the activity should dissipate by noon or so. Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track. Will maintain the current configuration of the Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning, which both will go into effect at noon today. Lastly, a few CAMs continue to show a few isolated showers/storms developing this afternoon, mainly over the Ozark Plateau. With strong ridging occurring aloft, still not enough confidence to include mentionable PoPs at this time, but did include silent PoPs (10%) for portions of northwest AR and into parts of far southeast OK through about 7 PM. Mejia && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Another day of hot temperatures in store for all of E OK/NW AR. Have upgraded the Heat Watch to an Excessive Heat Warning, and this will also include LeFlore and Sequoyah counties with heat index values of 110-112 degrees expected. Elsewhere, the Heat Advisory remains as is. Headlines will be in effect from noon to 9pm. Some CAMS suggest potential for a few showers/storms this afternoon in the higher terrain of far E OK and NW AR, but will not include any mention as coverage should remain very low. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Hot temperatures continue tomorrow, but a few more clouds during the afternoon may keep temps down a degree or two. Will go ahead with a Heat Advisory from noon to 9pm tomorrow for all zones except the four far NW AR zones. Isolated storms are possible tomorrow afternoon across parts of NW AR so will include a low PoP in that area. With upper ridging setting up across the SW CONUS, NW upper flow will bring a wave into the area along with a surface boundary Tuesday night and into Wednesday afternoon. Chances for showers and storms will increase at this time, with the slightly better chances across NE OK and NW AR Tuesday night and Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday, however hot temperatures return at the end of the week as the upper ridge sets up across the southern plains for Friday. Additional chances for showers and storms may come next weekend, especially across NE OK with convection that develops to the north in KS along a cold front. This boundary may push into the over the weekend, so will go with lower chance PoPs for parts of the area Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Southerly sfc winds will occasionally gust between 15-20 kts through the afternoon, especially at the NE OK terminals. A pop-up shower/storm or two may occur later this afternoon, specifically across far NW AR, but convective chances are too low to include in TAFs. Otherwise, FEW to SCT mid/high clouds expected through the period. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 100 81 99 76 / 0 0 10 30 FSM 101 78 99 77 / 10 10 10 10 MLC 97 77 97 75 / 0 0 10 10 BVO 101 77 99 72 / 0 0 10 40 FYV 99 75 96 72 / 10 10 10 20 BYV 99 75 96 72 / 10 10 20 30 MKO 98 78 96 75 / 0 0 10 20 MIO 99 76 96 72 / 0 0 10 40 F10 97 76 97 74 / 0 0 10 20 HHW 96 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>071- 073>075. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ072- 076. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ UPDATE...67 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...67