Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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553 FXUS64 KTSA 241919 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon/early evening across north-central Oklahoma in the vicinity of weak surface boundary and associated low pressure system. This activity is forecast to spread into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the evening hours as a mid-level shortwave currently over southwest Kansas swoops through the area. There is the potential that a few of the storms could be strong to severe this evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma, mainly to the south of Highway 412 and west of Highway 75. Large hail to the size of golf balls is the main concern. Overall, the shower and storm activity is expected to move out of the area late tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Wednesday into Thursday are expected to remain mostly dry as a cutoff upper level takes shape over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and storm chances increase Thursday night into Friday as moisture associated with Helene is incorporated into the cutoff low as it wobbles east of the area. The highest probabilities of shower/storms are forecast across western Arkansas as are the highest rainfall amounts. The upper level low will finally begin to move off to the northeast over the weekend with dry weather forecast for much of the area. Temperatures look to be near normal for this time of year during this time-frame. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Mid level cloud cover will increase this afternoon and evening as a disturbance moves into the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will also become greater later this afternoon and evening, especially from Interstate 44 southward. Best chance for thunder impacts will be to KMLC and KFSM this evening, with lighter scattered showers possible for other terminals. Ceilings will also lower, but are expected to stay mostly VFR, though some MVFR cigs could accompany thunderstorms this evening. Some fog could also develop again tomorrow morning for SE OK and W AR terminals, though have left out of mention for now given uncertainties in rain and cloud cover evolution overnight. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 57 81 54 80 / 40 0 0 0 FSM 61 82 59 82 / 70 0 0 10 MLC 59 81 56 81 / 90 0 0 0 BVO 52 81 51 82 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 54 79 51 78 / 50 0 0 20 BYV 54 78 51 77 / 30 0 0 20 MKO 57 79 55 79 / 70 0 0 10 MIO 54 79 50 78 / 20 0 0 10 F10 57 80 53 79 / 80 0 0 0 HHW 62 81 56 82 / 80 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...04