672
FXUS64 KTSA 281129
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A complex of storms associated with a mid-level shortwave trough
and low-level jet continues to weaken as the activity moves across
northern OK/southern KS early this morning. Will maintain low
mentionable PoPs for portions of far northeastern OK, north of the
I-44 corridor, through about sunrise.

Oppressive heat and humidity will return today for much of the
forecast area. With the exception of the elevated terrain
locations, widespread temperatures are expected to rise into the
mid-upper 90s this afternoon, with triple digit temperatures
likely along and west of Highway 75 in OK. Guidance has been
fairly consistent in producing a swath of 75F+ dewpoint
temperatures for portion of northeast OK and into portions of
southeast OK. This combo of temperatures/dew points will yield
heat indices 110F+ for a few hours this afternoon. Despite a lower
forecast in temperatures, did go ahead and add (upgraded)
Pittsburg, Pushmataha, and Choctaw counties to the existing
Excessive Heat Warning, which will go into effect at noon today.
The configuration and timing of the Heat Advisory remains intact
and unchanged.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will persist through the
overnight hours tonight. A weak and slow-moving cold front will
begin to approach from the north/northwest late tonight and into
Saturday morning. Included some low-end, isolated PoPs early
Saturday morning, mostly along and north of the I-44 corridor,
along and head of the approaching front. Most locations will
likely remain dry. The frontal boundary is forecast to gradually
sag southward through the day on Saturday. Models continue to
produce better chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms,
increasing in coverage by mid-late Saturday afternoon through the
evening hours. Instability will also increase along and ahead of
the frontal boundary, with MUCAPE values maximizing between
1500-3000 J/kg late Saturday afternoon or early Saturday evening.
Although deep-layer 0-6km shear will be rather weak, a few strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of
the cold front, generally along and north of I-40, with the main
hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. The SPC has
included much of eastern OK and all of northwest AR in a Marginal
Risk of severe storms on Saturday/Saturday evening.

Despite the slow-advancing (weak) cold front on Saturday, another
sweltering hot day is anticipated, with extreme heat indices
(105-115F) during the afternoon, especially for portions of
northeast OK and the AR River Valley. Heat headlines will likely
be needed again for much, if not all, of the forecast area.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist into Sunday as the
aforementioned cold front continues to slowly advance southward
through the remainder of the forecast area. Increased cloud cover
and rain chances on Sunday should produce much cooler and closer
to seasonal average temperatures. Therefore, not expecting any
heat headlines on Sunday.

Dangerous heat and humidity will likely return during the early-
middle part of next week as mid/upper-level ridging strengthens
over the Southern Plains. However, trends in model data suggest
rain/storm chances return mid-late week as ridging continues to
shift southward and allows another weak cold front to approach
Wednesday night-Thursday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Broken/overcast high clouds continue this morning in association
with decaying convection currently lifting into southeast Kansas.
Gusty south winds will develop by mid morning and persist through
early evening. VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
A few light rain showers will be possible in the KBVO area late
tonight ahead of approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  82  99  75 /   0  10  30  50
FSM   98  79 100  79 /   0   0  10  30
MLC   96  78  98  76 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   99  78  97  70 /  10  20  30  50
FYV   95  75  97  72 /   0  10  30  50
BYV   95  75  96  71 /  10  10  40  50
MKO   95  79  97  76 /   0  10  20  50
MIO   94  78  95  71 /  10  30  40  50
F10   96  78  97  74 /   0  10  20  50
HHW   94  78  95  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ058-063-068-072-074>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...12