340
FXUS64 KTSA 271539
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1039 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Today will feature a minor break in the heat compared to the past
several days. Most forecast parameters look good at the moment,
however current dew point trends do favor higher values than NBM
and closer to NAM12 values. Have adjusted dew points up a few
degrees, though this still keeps Heat Index values below 100 for
the most part. Different story tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Isolated convection may affect parts of mainly northeast Oklahoma
late tonight/early Friday morning and again late Friday
night/early Saturday morning. Otherwise, the heat will return for
Friday and Saturday with the excessive heat watch continuing for
parts of northeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon. Much of the rest of
the area will likely need heat headlines as well both Friday and
Saturday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up late Saturday and
especially Saturday night and Sunday as a weak frontal boundary
pushes south into the area. Much of the area will see another
brief respite from the heat again Sunday as a result.

The heat will return in full force early next week, although the
NBM numbers look a bit excessive especially given recent and
possible future rainfall. Lowered afternoon highs slightly as a
result early next week, but heat headlines will likely be needed
again regardless.

Another weak frontal boundary will increase shower and storm
chances again later next week, likely just in time for the
Independence Day holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Aside from potential for some pockets of reduced visibility this
morning for NW AR sites, VFR conditions are expected through the
period with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds. There is low
potential for BVO to experience a brief period of lower vsbys this
morning as well, but confidence was not high enough to mention in
TAF. Late in the period, scattered showers and storms may drift
into portions of NE OK, potentially impacting BVO. However, due
to uncertainty regarding coverage, did not include in the
forecast for now. Sfc winds forecast to generally remain below 10
kts out of the E/SE today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  76  98  81 /   0  20  20  20
FSM   94  71  97  78 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   93  73  96  78 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   92  72  98  77 /  10  30  30  30
FYV   91  66  93  74 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   90  67  93  75 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   92  72  96  78 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   91  71  93  78 /   0  30  30  20
F10   91  72  96  78 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   92  70  94  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for OKZ055-056-060>062-066-067-070.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43