Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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700 FXUS64 KTSA 191538 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1038 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The northern limb of a deep-layer moist axis extending north from TS Alberto in the southwest Gulf will shift west over the forecast area today. This, combined with daytime heating, should bring at least slighly higher coverage (PoPs still low overall though) of spotty showers this afternoon across the area. Will keep thunder probs confined to the north and west of Tulsa closer to a weak front/differential heating boundary. The remainder of the forecast was left unchanged. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Near normal temperatures, partly to mostly cloudy skies and widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected in eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas today. Very light showers remain early this morning across Osage and Pawnee counties on the edge of a modest low level jet and may persist into mid morning before dissipating. An increase in cloud cover can be expected this afternoon, especially across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, which should keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than observed yesterday. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Surface high pressure will nose into the area overnight, leading to lighter and more easterly winds than the last few nights, which should promote cooler low temperatures for Thursday morning than we have seen of late. During the day Thursday, cloud cover should diminish overall, as the moisture from the tropical system to our south is pushed west of the area by the expanding upper level high to the east. There could be more isolated shower and thunderstorm development on Thursday afternoon, especially in southeast Oklahoma on the edge of the expanding high, and this potential will be added to the NBM offering. For Friday and into the weekend, the temperature and moisture combination takes focus with the high overhead. Temperatures should reach well above normal levels for the weekend and continue into early next week. An increase in moisture remains expected by Sunday, which will make the heat stress potential worse. Expect widespread triple digit heat index values, with a likely need for heat headlines during much of this time frame. Toward early next week, the high remains expected to shift far enough west to allow for some more organized shower and thunderstorm potential. Have adjusted the NBM initialization up a bit to allow for mentionable POPs Sunday night/Monday morning and also Monday night/Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 An outflow boundary from overnight showers has pushed into northeast OK, and may get as far east as KBVO before stalling out. A few showers and potentially a wind shift are possible there this morning. Low clouds are also spreading in along this boundary, but independently are also filling in across portions of southeast OK and northwest AR. Generally, most terminals can expect SCT-BKN coverage in the 2.5-5 kft range for this morning before thinning during the afternoon. Additional showers and storms may develop this afternoon for southeast OK and northwest AR, with a 10-30% chance of affecting any given terminal. For now, did not include mention of this but if confidence increases it will be included in future TAF updates. Winds will be breezy again today, but mostly in the 10-20 kt range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 92 73 92 74 / 20 10 10 0 FSM 91 73 93 73 / 20 10 10 0 MLC 89 71 91 71 / 20 10 20 0 BVO 91 69 91 69 / 10 10 10 0 FYV 90 68 90 68 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 90 68 90 68 / 30 10 0 0 MKO 90 72 90 72 / 20 10 0 0 MIO 90 71 90 71 / 10 10 0 0 F10 89 71 89 71 / 30 10 10 0 HHW 85 73 90 71 / 20 10 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...30 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...06