898
FXUS65 KTWC 232012
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
112 PM MST Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer. High pressure will push temperatures
back to well above average this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge of high pressure will build into
western states from the coast over the next 36 hours. This will
continue our dry conditions, with a rapid heating trend to around
10 degrees above average by mid week. That means another batch of
100 degree temperatures for Tucson the second half of the week
into at least early next week.

Some fluctuations in heights and thicknesses, but the overall
ridge over SE AZ pattern will continue next week as ensemble
means suggest negative height anomalies upstream near the west
coast and even even stronger downstream over eastern states.

The tropical eastern Pacific has seen Hurricane John develop near
the southern Mexico coast, with another area of development a
little further west later in the week. There`s still no real
signal that would bring that toward our area with a mean ridge
position from the desert southwest through northwest Mexico.
However, if we can get the ridge to shift a little further east,
we could have a brief late season surge of moisture to start the
new month.

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 25/00z.
Mostly SKC through the period. SFC winds will generally be less
than 10 kts and mainly terrain driven. Occasional afternoon gusts
are possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with a warming trend through the
week. Temperatures will be 4 to 10 degrees above normal and peak
by the end of the week. 20-foot winds will generally be less than
15 mph with the occasional gust. Min relative humidities will be
in the teens for the lower elevations and the middle 20s for the
higher elevations.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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