Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
937 FXUS65 KTWC 290936 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 236 AM MST Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Active monsoon pattern this weekend into early next week bring daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION...Considerable debris clouds was over most of SE AZ this morning with isolated light showers/virga running around. The cloud cover will slowly diminish as the morning progresses. The last weekend of June will be active as a pair of upper air disturbances move across the area with high pressure situated to our east over west Texas. The first disturbance moves across the area mainly this evening into the overnight hours, thus scattered storms this afternoon with greater areal coverage tonight. This first disturbance will be west of the area by late Sunday morning with strong mid-level winds pushing clouds out of the area. This will set up the area for a stronger disturbance that is progged to move across the area last Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. PW values will be in the 1.5" to 1.0" range and this sets portions of the area for heavy rain event. Latest HREF is showing a 10% chance for isolated parts of Pima and Santa Cruz county possibly seeing up to 3" of rain in a 3-hr period Sunday afternoon and evening. WPC has this area under a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Something to watch over the next 24 hours as this area may need a flash flood watch for Sun aftn/eve. Will also see strong to isolated severe thunderstorms on Sunday with blowing dust being a concern between Tucson and Phoenix. Next week with see daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. At this time hard to tell which days will be up or down. High temperatures will generally remain above normal with day-to-day variability. && .AVIATION...Valid through 30/12Z. Considerable debris clouds. mostly abv 12k ft AGL, will slowly dissipate this am, bcmg sct in cvrg by 29/18z. Aft 29/20z thru the end of valid pd, SCT to LCLY BKN clouds 8-12k ft AGL. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA with brief MVFR conds nr storms. SFC winds 10 kts or less with the occasional afternoon gusts, except of gusty outflows from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will stick around through the forecast period. This will bring widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms and showers this afternoon/tonight with an uptick in active on Sunday. Next week will see daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Strong erratic gusty winds of 40 mph or higher can be expected with any storm development, along with locally brief heavy rainfall. Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon with the occasional gust of 20 mph. Min RHs will generally be around 20% in the valleys and 30s in the mountains with good overnight recoveries. && .CLIMATE...The triple-digit high streak for Tucson, which currently stands at 33 consecutive days, is at risk today thanks to yesterdays two brief heavy rain events that hit the airport and morning cloud cover. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson