139
FXUS65 KTWC 230904
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 AM MST Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer. High pressure will push temperatures
back to well above average this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Sunny skies are in store for Southeast Arizona along
with warming trend. A ridge of high pressure will start to build
across the Intermountain west starting today and lasting through
week, and possibly into next week.

The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index has increase the signal for
warmer than normal temperatures up to 80-90% agreement from the
previous run. This signal ramps up on Tuesday and lasting into
Sunday. Also, there is good agreement from the ensemble models on
the strength and position of the ridge. This translates to
temperatures being 4 to 10 degrees above normal and at or near
record temperatures, especially for Tucson. Widespread Moderate
Heat Risk for areas Tucson west and Minor Heat Risk east of
Tucson. There are isolated pockets of Major Heat Risk in central
to west Pima County which can impact heat sensitive individuals.
One sliver of reprieve in the temperatures, and unlike what the
June, July, and August provided, will be the morning lows being in
the 70s for the Tucson west and 60s in the east through this
warming period on Wednesday through Saturday. A 10 degrees cooler
than the preceding summer months lows but a few degrees above
seasonal morning lows in late September. Today is good time to
get ready for late summer heat as it will be here soon.

Looking beyond this weekend, ensemble models don`t offer much
hope in shedding the warm temperatures. The general consensus
will be a broad ridge of high pressure over the region into the
first week of October. This points to temperatures being above
normal and a warm start to the end of September into October.


&&

.AVIATION...valid through 24/12z.
Mostly SKC through the period. SFC winds will generally be less
than 10 kts and mainly terrain driven. Occasional afternoon gust
is possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with a warming trend through the
week. Temperatures will be 4 to 10 degrees above normal and peak
by the end of the week. 20-foot winds will generally be less than
15 mph with the occasional gust. Min relative humidities will be
in the teens for the lower elevations and the middle 20s for the
higher elevations.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Strongman


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