607
FNUS75 KTWC 291528
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Creek Fire...San Carlos Reservation
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
828 AM MST Sat Jun 29 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 MST on June 29.

.DISCUSSION...Relatively deep moisture for late June will help
keep RH values on the moist side through the weekend, along with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow afternoon
and evening appears to the best timeframe for any stronger
thunderstorms with erratic gusty outflows possible. Moisture will
be deep enough for locally heavy rainfall with any stronger storms.
Winds will generally remain below 15 mph this afternoon with
occasional gusts to around 20 mph. Sunday afternoon winds will be
slightly stronger sustained at around 15 mph through the afternoon
with a few gusts as high as 30 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....103-106 degrees.
Min humidity........18-21 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 6 to 11 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL increasing to 7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 4 to 9 knots.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....78-81 degrees.
Max humidity........50-53 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 5 to 10 mph overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 8 knots.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent increasing to 70 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....105-108 degrees.
Min humidity........19-22 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 12 to 17 mph with gusts to around 28
                    mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL increasing to 5500 ft AGL late in
                    the morning, then increasing to 8300 ft AGL
                    late in the morning increasing to 11400 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon decreasing to 9100 ft
                    AGL decreasing to 6800 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon decreasing to 4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 13 knots.

$$
Forecaster...Van Stratten
Requested by...Fire Module
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416920.0/TWC
.DELDT 06/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL azphc@firenet.gov

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson