359
FXUS63 KUNR 251042
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
442 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dry weather, much warmer than average temperatures and elevated
 fire weather conditions continue through the weekend.

-Cooler to start next week, then warming again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Mean ridging will lead to much warmer than average temperatures
continuing through this weekend. Unseasonably hot weather is
expected today with highs on the plains in the mid-80s to lower
90s, and especially on Thursday, when highs will be well into the
90s for much of the area. (For reference, the normal high for
the Rapid City airport today is 72 degrees and the record high is
93.)

A cool front will cross the area later on Thursday, leading to
only slightly cooler temperatures (mainly 80s) heading into the
weekend.

The pattern becomes unsettled next week, as a series of upper
troughs passing to the north alternate with the rebounding upper
ridge. It appears that a stronger cold front may cross the region
sometime early next week, however chances for appreciable
precipitation remain quite low. Confidence in pattern evolution
and details remains low given timing inconsistencies from model
to model and run to run (also indicated by the ensemble spread)
likely the result of downstream upper flow blocking tendencies.
Any cool spell early next week will likely be short lived given
strong tendencies for the ridge to rebuild.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 441 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Breezy
southerly winds will develop this morning and continue into
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 149 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Temperatures will be much warmer than average through the rest of
the week, resulting in continued elevated fire weather
conditions. Near critical to critical conditions are expected
today and Thursday due to low relative humidity, very warm
temperatures and periods of breezy to windy conditions. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect today for much of northeastern Wyoming
and the far southwestern corner of South Dakota, where gusty
southerly winds coincide with very low relative humidity. The dry
air will shift eastward into western South Dakota on Thursday, but
the area of windier conditions may not coincide with the area of
lower RH. If the wind speeds appear to be trending higher, fire
weather headlines may be needed for Thursday. No precipitation
chances are expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     SDZ322.
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ314>317.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10
AVIATION...Pojorlie
FIRE WEATHER...10