Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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366 FXUS63 KUNR 190745 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 145 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very windy conditions will continue over northwestern South Dakota into the afternoon, with winds diminishing late - Elevated fire weather conditions continue through Saturday - Generally dry conditions the next several days && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday) Issued at 111 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Water vapor shows upper low over southeastern SASK, and next upper trof digging into BC. A cutoff low is noted along the CA coast. At the surface, low center is over southeast SASK with trof/front extending southward through the Plains. Tight pressure gradient creating some gusty westerly winds, especially over northwest SD. Stacked low currently over southeast SASK will slowly move east, with dry westerly flow extending through SD. Advisory level winds expected to continue across northwestern SD into the afternoon before relaxing. Current wind advisory looks good. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures will warm 5-10 degrees for Friday with dry westerly flow aloft continuing as aforementioned upper trof along the BC coast shifts into the Northern Rockies. Associated cold front will then move through late Friday and drop highs into the 60s/70s for Saturday. A few -shra not out of question late Saturday across our far southern zones in closer proximity to the cold front. General large scale trof will dominate our wx through early next week, with temps close to average and mostly dry conditions continuing. Trof will shift east with upper ridge amplifying through the Rockies by the middle of next week with warmer temps likely returning. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued At 1121 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty west-northwest winds will persist tonight into Thursday, especially from far northeast WY to northwest SD. A few light showers are expected tonight into early Thursday from far northeast WY to far northwest SD. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 111 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions will continue today through Saturday across the region. Min RHs today will be in the 20s to lower 30s. Gusty westerly winds today, especially across northwest SD, will lead to near critical conditions there. On Friday, drier air returns with Min RHs in the teens to mid 20s. Near critical conditions will likely develop over parts of northeast WY and far southwest SD where winds may gust over 20 mph. On Saturday, gusty northwest winds will develop behind a cold front, but RH`s will rise back into the 20 and 30s. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for SDZ001-002- 012>014-025-072-073-078. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson AVIATION...26 FIRE WEATHER...Johnson