577
FXUS65 KVEF 091830
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1130 AM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Low humidity and strong winds will result in critical fire weather
  conditions across the northern portions of Lincoln County today.

* An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for southern Mohave County
  and the Colorado River Valley for today.

* Hot and dry conditions will continue through the weekend and
  into early next week as ridging persists across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

Breezy southwesterly winds will pick up across southern Nevada as a
shortwave moves through the Great Basin today. These winds, combined
with low humidity and dry fuels will result in critical fire weather
conditions across the northern portions of Lincoln County, where a
Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon and evening. For more
details, see the FIRE WEATHER section below.

Temperatures will peak across the southeastern portion of our
forecast area today, resulting in widespread Major (Level 3 of 4)
HeatRisk across southern Mohave County and the Colorado River
Valley. Major HeatRisk will affect anyone without access to
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Given that temperatures
will top out 5+ degrees above normal and the risk posed from the
heat, an Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for the aforementioned
areas for this afternoon and evening. After today, the southeastern
portion of our forecast area will see temperatures gradually
decrease as we head into the weekend, returning to near normal by
Saturday.

In response to the aforementioned shortwave moving through the Great
Basin, we will see the ridge axis shift over the western portion of
our forecast area on Thursday and Friday. This will result in a
gradual warming trend during across our central and western zones as
we head into the weekend. This high pressure will persist through
the weekend and into next week, allowing for hot and dry conditions
to continue across the region. While the southeastern portion of our
forecast area will see temperatures gradually "cool" back down to
near normal by Saturday, temperatures will rebound as we head into
next week due to the persistent ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty
southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots will continue across the valley
through the afternoon.  A period of lighter winds is likely around
sunset, but is expected to increase to 12 to 15 knots by midnight
and remain elevated for several hours.  By daybreak, light and
variable winds should become established.  There is moderate
confidence that winds will shift to the northwest by late morning
tomorrow.  While gusts to 20 knots are expected with the initial
shift, winds should fall below 8 knots by afternoon.  VFR conditions
will prevail through the forecast period with only a FEW clouds with
bases AOA 15kft AGL expected.  Temperatures will exceed 100F through
05Z and then between 17Z and 05Z on Thursday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described above for
Harry Reid. Across the Western Mojave, gusts approaching 30KT are
expected through the afternoon and evening, with directions favoring
a westerly direction.  In the Owens Valley, including KBIH, north
winds early this afternoon turn more westerly by mid-afternoon as
downslope flow off the Sierra develops.  Wind will return to a more
northerly direction overnight.  In the Colorado River Valley,
typical south-to-southwest winds are expected throughout the TAF
period.  VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period
with only a FEW clouds with bases AOA 15kft AGL expected generally
north of the I-15 corridor.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue across southern Nevada
with the strongest winds shifting into Lincoln County today as a
shortwave moves through the Great Basin. Relative humidities across
Lincoln County will bottom out in the single digits to low teens
this afternoon. This low humidity, combined with 15 to 20 mph
southwesterly winds gusting up to 30 mph will result in critical
fire weather conditions across Nevada Fire Weather Zone 461 today.
As such a Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon and
evening for zone 461. After today, we will see dry conditions
continue through the weekend and into next week but winds will be
lighter, which will help to mitigate fire weather risk.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Phillipson

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