928
FXUS65 KVEF 160356
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
856 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An increasing southwest flow aloft will lead to a hot
and breezy day across the region today. However, a shift in the
weather pattern will bring a cooling trend to the area beginning
Sunday and continuing through the middle of next week before
temperatures are forecast to increase once again. Temperatures
will be more seasonal early to mid week for the first time since
late May.
&&

.UPDATE...The current forecast remains on track with no major
changes necessary at this time. Temperatures across southern Nevada,
northwestern Arizona, and southeastern California topped out around
5 to 8 degrees above normal this afternoon. Beginning tomorrow,
temperatures will start decreasing, a trend that will continue
through Tuesday when temperatures will be around 3 to 5 degrees
cooler than normal. Temperatures will take back off during the
second half of the week, with afternoon temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
hotter than normal as we head into next weekend. Dry conditions are
expected to continue across the area through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night.

An upper level low will continue to drop south into the region
tonight and Sunday. The trajectory of this low is dry so no
precipitation is expected with this system. Another day of gusty
west to southwest winds is expected on Sunday. The highest chance
for impactful winds is in and around Barstow, CA into the Yucca
Valley as probabilities for wind gusts over 40 MPH jump to around
80% Sunday late afternoon into the evening. This is about when a
moderate 850mb jet will be squeezing into the area. While
probabilities are decently high, the length of time of the
probabilities and area is limited so no need for wind headlines at
this time. Dry air combined with breezy winds will result in
increased fire danger. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday in
Mohave County where dry conditions, breezy winds, and primed fuels
will have the best potential for easy fir starts and rapid fire
spreads. Elsewhere, winds or fuel moisture remain marginal but
caution should be used as it will continue to be very dry in the
afternoons.

The incoming low will be the start of a cool down heading into early
next week. High temperatures SUnday afternoon will remain slightly
above normal but be about 5 degrees cooler than today`s high
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

Still expecting the passage of a weak, dry cold front Monday night
which will bring high temperatures back down closer to normal Monday-
Wednesday. Surface winds will remain elevated on Monday then return
to a more typical daytime south-southwest direction with speeds 10-
20 mph the rest of the week. Temperatures quickly start too warm on
Thursday and Friday as broad, weak trough across the west starts to
weaken its grip on the region. HeatRisk will mostly be in the
`Moderate" category, with patchy `Major` values for a few of
the lower desert valleys heading into next weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light south winds expected through the
morning and early-afternoon with directional variability between 150
and 220. Expect breezy southwest winds by 21Z with gusts of 20-30
kts; 30% chance of gusts occurring above 25 kts. Gusts will become
more sporadic after sunset, but will not cease until around 12Z.
Expect a similar wind pattern on Sunday. No operationally
significant cloud cover expected, but some smoke may be evident
overnight at 10k or above.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and
southeastern California...Gusty southwest winds will pick up across
the area around 20z with gust speeds between 20 and 30 kts. The
exception will be KBIH which will gust from the north around 20 kts
and KDAG which will gust from the west around 35 kts. Gusts will
persist through 12Z before gradually subsiding through the remainder
of the morning. Expect a similar wind pattern on Sunday. No
operationally significant cloud cover expected, except at KDAG where
a layer of smoke around 6k feet will occur through the overnight
tonight.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to
be under 15 percent over the weekend with poor overnight RH
recovery. We will see gusty southwest winds develop again Sunday
afternoon and potentially Monday afternoon with sustained winds
between 10 and 20 mph with gusts 20 to 35 mph. The combination of
low RH and gusty winds will elevate fire spread concerns, at least
locally on Sunday in Mohave County and the Colorado River Valley
where a Red Flag Warning is in effect.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stessman
SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Varian

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