811
FXUS65 KVEF 161707
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1007 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A shifting weather pattern will bring a cooling trend
to the area today through the middle of the week in addition to
breezy winds. Temperatures are forecast to increase late in the
week with very hot conditions expected over the weekend into the
early days of the following week. Chances are high of seeing 110
degrees or higher in Las Vegas next weekend which will bring
with it, the reintroduction of major Heat Risk impacts. Chances
are low but not out of the question that highs beyond Sunday
could reach 115 degrees or higher. Moderate Heat Risk is forecast
across much of the remainder of the area with pockets of major
Heat Risk sprinkled in. Welcome to the first official weekend of
Summer in the Desert Southwest!
&&

.UPDATE...Skies were clear across the region this morning, though
haze was noted in areas of southern California into Clark County as
winds pushed smoke from California fires into the region. Winds so
far this morning have been light outside of portions of San
Bernardino County through southern Mohave County where west to
southwest winds have already started gusting to 25 MPH.

Winds through the day will increase across the region as a longwave
trough slowly digs south, though widespread impactful winds are not
expected. Westerly wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible at times
around Barstow, CA after 4 PM which may impact drivers on I-40 and I-
15 around that area, however impacts would be limited as widespread
gusts over 40 MPH are not expected and any higher winds should be
short lived. Otherwise, south to southwest winds across the region
will gust 20 to 30 MPH at times, especially late this afternoon and
early evening. With increased winds and very dry conditions, the Red
Flag Warning remains in effect for Mohave County where the risk for
rapidly spreading fires is high. With the incoming system comes
cooler temperatures. High temperatures today will be slightly above
normal but a few degrees cooler than yesterday. No significant
changes were made to the afternoon forecast other than updating
conditions for smoke and haze from nearby wildfires.

-Nickerson-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...219 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024
.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday.

Some relief from the heat is forecast for today and Monday with
afternoon high temperatures around 5 degrees cooler today with an
additional 3-5 degrees of cooling on Monday. Here in the Las
Vegas Valley, a few days ago we were looking at a 3-day string of
sub 100 degree days Mon-Wed but now it looks like this will be
limited to a single day on Tuesday. NBM probabilities for
temperatures of 99 or less are now 25% for Monday and Wednesday
with a 90% chance on Tuesday.

Enhanced southwest winds this afternoon and Monday afternoon will
increase fire spread concerns across northwest Arizona where Red
Flag Warnings are in place. Across our area, southwest gusts of
15-25 mph are expected to be fairly widespread this afternoon with
more localized gusts of 25-35 mph across the Western Mojave Desert
and into central Mohave County in and around the Kingman area. On
Monday, widespread southerly gusts of 15-30 mph are expected
except for gusts of 25-35 in the western portions of San
Bernardino County and locally around Kingman. Gusty northwest
winds 25-40 mph are forecast on Monday across Esmeralda County and
parts of northern Inyo and central Nye County behind a cold front.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Tuesday will be the "coolest" day of the week with afternoon high
temperatures topping out 3 to 5 degrees below normal for mid-June.
Troughiness will linger across the Western US through the end of the
work week as the upper-level trough that brought us our brief
reprieve from the heat weakens. These rising 500 mb heights will
allow for temperatures will quickly recover back up to 5 to 10
degrees hotter than normal by the end of the week. By Friday,
widespread Moderate HeatRisk will have returned to southeastern
California, northwestern Arizona, and southern Nevada. Major
HeatRisk will return to the Las Vegas Valley, Death Valley, and the
Amargosa Valley on Saturday as temperatures continue to climb.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy south winds will persist through
daybreak with sporadic gusts of 15 to 20 knots. A relative lull in
the winds is likely post-sunrise through early afternoon when the
winds will trend lighter but continue to favor south directions. A
renewed push of southerlies are expected by 20z with afternoon and
evening gusts to 25 knots that will persist well into the overnight
period. Skies will be mostly clear though some light haze from
regional wildfire activity may reduce slantwise visibility.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Another day of widespread south or southwesterly winds
across the Mojave Desert with afternoon and evening gusts of 20 to
30 knots. Winds further north across the Sierra will favor more
northwesterly directions near KBIH but 20 to 30 knot gusts are
likely there as well. Skies will be mostly clear though some light
haze from regional wildfire activity may reduce slantwise
visibility across parts of the Mojave Desert.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Very dry conditions are expected both today and
Monday with minimum relative humidity dropping below 10% each
afternoon. For Arizona fire zones 101 and 102, poor RH recovery is
expected tonight with some improvement forecast Monday night.
In addition to the Red Flag Warning in effect for AZZ101-102
today, a new RFW has been issued for Monday when similar
conditions are present. Widespread wind gusts may struggle to
reach or exceed gust thresholds but sustained winds will likely
exceed 20 mph both days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Salmen
LONG TERM...Stessman
AVIATION...Outler

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