Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
379 FXUS65 KVEF 052026 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 125 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region through Friday then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough approaches the West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal can be expected with record high temperatures likely for some sites Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will slowly retreat over the weekend, but will remain above normal into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...through Friday. The heat wave begins under a broad amplified ridge extending from Mexico up to the Pacific Northwest with its axis directly over Nevada today. The mean ridge will hold over our region Thursday and Friday ahead of a weak trough over the Eastern Pacific moving slowly toward the West Coast. Afternoon south-southwest winds will help boost temps a little Thursday and Friday with sustained speeds 10-15 mph. There is no significant variation in temperature forecasts through Friday and records form some sites will likely be broken Thursday and Friday. See the climate section below for additional details on records. The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through 9 pm Friday for our Mojave Desert zones and the Owens Valley. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the southern Great Basin and southern Nevada mountains for the same period. A 10-20% chance of showers or thunderstorms remains along the southern Sierra of Inyo and Mono Counties each afternoon and evening and gusty winds would be the main impact with any storm. .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday. Over the weekend and into early next week, temperatures are forecast to gradually cool as a cutoff low off the Baja Coast begins to move inland. By Sunday/Monday, the combination of falling 500mb heights and increased cloud cover should bring highs down 5-10 degrees from their peak on Thursday, but temperatures will still be several degrees above normal. There may be just enough moisture with the low to spur weak convection on the high terrain. Best odds (still only 15% or less) appear to be on the fringes of our CWA, namely the Sierra, our far northern zones, and eastern Mohave County. Otherwise, the forecast area remains largely dry. By the middle of next week, the ensemble guidance has the low dissipating and another ridge developing over the Western US. Uncertainty remains on the strength and position of this ridge, as well as potential for another cutoff low off the SoCal Coast. Warming temperatures are likely during this time, but just how warm we get will depend on the aforementioned uncertainties. Probabilities for 110 in Las Vegas increase to 40% by Wednesday, but the 25th to 75th percentiles range from 105 to 112. Either way you look at it, above-normal temperatures are likely (60-80%) to continue through at least the 2nd week of June. && .CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures, and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week. The tables below shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum temperature for Wednesday, June 5 through Friday, June 7. RECORD HIGH WED, JUNE 5 THU, JUNE 6 FRI, JUNE 7 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 109(2016) 110(2010) 109(2013) Bishop 101(2021) 102(2010) 103(2013) Needles 117(2016) 114(2013) 117(2013) Barstow-Daggett 110(1996) 110(1981) 112(1985) Kingman 105(2016) 103(2013) 106(2013) Death Valley 122(1996) 121(1996) 123(1995) RECORD HIGH WED, JUNE 5 THU, JUNE 6 FRI, JUNE 7 LOW Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 84(2021) 83(2019) 86(2010) Bishop 63(2003) 64(2016) 61(2016) Needles 87(1957) 87(2006) 95(2016) Barstow-Daggett 80(1977) 82(1981) 81(2002) Kingman 75(1903) 74(1981) 74(1928) Death Valley 94(2021) 95(2019) 93(2006) && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will remain below 10 knots and follow typical diurnal directional trends. Expect periods of light and variable winds as they transition. Temperatures are expected to reach 100 degrees between 10 am and ll am Thursday morning. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds will remain relatively light at 10 knots or less and will tend to follow typical diurnal directional trends. Winds may become light and variable at times, especially as they transition between day and night directions. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adair LONG TERM...Woods AVIATION...Salmen For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter