733
FXUS65 KVEF 210805
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
105 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Aside from a few lingering light showers in
Northwest Arizona, dry conditions will resume today as high
pressure slowly rebuilds over the region. Temperatures will climb
several degrees above normal though next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday.

Closed low which brought widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity to the region on Friday is now shifting into northern
Arizona, with lingering precipitation noted at this hour across
central Mohave County around the Kingman vicinity. The brunt of
this activity will wane through the remainder of the night as the
strongest dynamics become refocused across northern Arizona by
daybreak. Still cant rule out a stray shower across eastern Mohave
County through this afternoon, but on the whole, dry conditions
are expected as more stable air moves in from the west. Meanwhile,
temperatures today near or slightly below seasonal averages.

Sunday and Monday, heights will slowly climb under a weak
northwesterly flow aloft between the remains of our closed low
well to the east, and a weak low off the coast of California.
Under this pattern, dry conditions will continue, with a slow
warming trend back closer to seasonal normals Sunday, and slightly
above normal to start the work week Monday.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.

Models have come back into very good agreement, showing solutions
very similar to runs from 48 hours ago. This gives some support
to the thought that yesterday`s runs were a one-off, but with such
large run to run changes, confidence is average. As was the case
Thursday morning, the main message appears to be unseasonably
warm, dry, and tranquil weather for our area through the period as
high pressure parks overhead. Yesterday`s runs showed a cutoff
low off the southern California coast and also an amplifying low
over the Four Corners; both of these features are de-emphasized
today, with the cutoff low weaker than before and the Four Corners
low farther east.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will be light (less than 8 knots)
across the valley today with variable directions through the morning
before becoming established from the southeast (120 degrees to 160
degrees) after 19Z. As the afternoon progresses, winds should
gradually turn more to the south before becoming southwest by 02Z.
Light and variable winds will return overnight and continue through
Sunday morning. The departing area of low pressure that brought the
showers and storms on yesterday will keep a few clouds with bases
AOA 12kft into the afternoon before skies clear.  Clear skies will
then persist overnight and Sunday.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...The area of low pressure that brought the showers and
thunderstorms to the region yesterday will depart today.  A few
lingering showers will still be possible through 18Z over eastern
Mohave County, but area TAF sites should not see any additional
precipitation. Light winds of less than 12 knots will follow typical
diurnal direction trends through this evening.  KDAG will see winds
increase out of the southwest to 10 to 15 knots with a few higher
gusts after 03Z, while all other sites remain less than 10kts into
Sunday morning. Skies will clear by evening and stay clear through
Sunday morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Morgan
AVIATION...Planz

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