029
FXUS65 KVEF 092027
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
126 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Low humidity and strong winds will result in critical fire weather
  conditions across the northern portions of Lincoln County into the
  early evening.

* An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for southern Mohave
  County and the Colorado River Valley into this evening.

* Hot and dry conditions will continue through the weekend and into
  early next week as ridging persists across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

A shortwave trough moving across the southern Great Basin will
maintain gusty southwesterly winds across southern Nevada this
afternoon.  These winds, combined with very low humidity levels and
dry fuels, are creating critical fire weather conditions across a
large portion of Lincoln County.  A Red Flag warning remains in
effect for this area through 8 PM this evening.  For more
information, see the Fire Weather discussion below.

Temperatures running 5 to 8 degrees above normal continue across the
Lower Colorado River Valley and central and southern Mohave County
this afternoon. Widespread Major (level 3 to 4) HeatRisk continues
in these areas, and an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect
through 8 PM this evening. After today, temperatures in this area
are expected to gradually decrease as we head into the weekend,
returning to near-normal levels by Saturday.

In response to the shortwave mentioned above moving through the
Great Basin, we will see the ridge axis shift over the western
portion of our forecast area on Thursday and Friday. This will
result in a gradual warming trend across our central and western
zones as we head into the weekend. This high pressure will persist
through the weekend and into next week, allowing for hot and dry
conditions to continue across the region. While the southeastern
portion of our forecast area will see temperatures gradually "cool"
back down to near normal by Saturday, temperatures will rebound as
we head into next week due to the persistent ridging.  HeatRisk
values through the weekend will be Minor to Moderate (levels 1 and 2
out of 4) in most areas. However, a few pockets of Major begin to
appear by Monday across the Mojave Desert and in the Colorado River
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty
southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots will continue across the valley
through the afternoon.  A period of lighter winds is likely around
sunset, but is expected to increase to 12 to 15 knots by midnight
and remain elevated for several hours.  By daybreak, light and
variable winds should become established.  There is moderate
confidence that winds will shift to the northwest by late morning
tomorrow.  While gusts to 20 knots are expected with the initial
shift, winds should fall below 8 knots by afternoon.  VFR conditions
will prevail through the forecast period with only a FEW clouds with
bases AOA 15kft AGL expected.  Temperatures will exceed 100F through
05Z and then between 17Z and 05Z on Thursday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described above for
Harry Reid. Across the Western Mojave, gusts approaching 30KT are
expected through the afternoon and evening, with directions favoring
a westerly direction.  In the Owens Valley, including KBIH, north
winds early this afternoon turn more westerly by mid-afternoon as
downslope flow off the Sierra develops.  Wind will return to a more
northerly direction overnight.  In the Colorado River Valley,
typical south-to-southwest winds are expected throughout the TAF
period.  VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period
with only a FEW clouds with bases AOA 15kft AGL expected generally
north of the I-15 corridor.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will persist across southern Nevada
with the strongest winds continuing across Lincoln County as a
shortwave moves through the Great Basin. Relative humidities across
Lincoln County have bottomed out between 7 and 13 percent, and will
remain around these values through 8 PM.  This low humidity,
combined with 15 to 20 mph southwesterly winds gusting up to 30 mph,
will maintain critical fire weather conditions across Nevada Fire
Weather Zone 461. The Red Flag Warning issued earlier remains in
effect through 8 PM this evening.  After today, dry conditions will
persist, but wind speeds will be lower, with afternoon speeds
ranging from 10 to 15 mph. These lower winds will help mitigate fire
weather risk into the weekend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Planz/Stessman
AVIATION...Planz
FIRE WEATHER...Planz

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