360
FXUS63 KBIS 191727
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1227 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30 to 40 percent chance of light rain and snow
  mainly in the western half of the state Thursday night into
  Friday morning. A 40 to 50 percent chance of a rain and snow
  mix is then forecast for Saturday afternoon through Sunday
  morning.

- Seasonable highs in the mid 30s to low 40s are on tap for
  today, with warmer temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s
  expected for Thursday. Cooler conditions northeast and much
  warmer conditions southwest are then expected Friday, through
  the weekend, and into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Stratus has moved out and fog has diminished, giving way to a
mostly sunny sky with only a little bit of fair weather cumulus
floating around. No changes needed for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 858 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Some patchy fog has formed over portions of the northwest and
into the north central so we added mention in the gridded
forecast until 16z. Otherwise, no major changes were needed for
this update other than to blend in the latest observations to
the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Most of the southern half of North Dakota remains under
low-level stratus, while the north is mostly clear. Skies will
continue to clear off through the morning. All in all, the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

As a ridge approaches the Central Plains and the lower levels
of the atmosphere dry out; mostly cloudy skies early this
morning will clear out by this afternoon. Gusty northerly winds
are expected in the south central today, which remains under
the influence of a tight pressure gradient from a Colorado Low
centered over Kansas. Dry conditions with seasonable
temperatures consisting of highs in the mid 30s north to low 40s
south are also on tap.

With the ridge progressing into the Central Plains tonight
through Thursday, and surface flow becomes southwesterly to
westerly, expect the return of above average temperatures into
the upper 40s and mid 50s on Thursday. Come Thursday night,
precipitation chances will return as shortwave energy off upper
Canadian low pressure digs into Ontario. Currently, there is
around a 30 to 40 percent chance of light rain and snow Thursday
night through Friday morning for the western half of the state,
with lower chances in the eastern third. While some snow may
mix in late Thursday night, don`t expect much in the way of
overall accumulations.

From Friday through the remainder of the period, northwesterly
flow aloft, along with occasional shortwaves/upper lows passing
through the flow, will prevail. This will produce the common
high temperature pattern of cooler conditions in northeastern ND
to much warmer conditions in the southwest. It will also
produce additional precipitation chances, with the highest
confidence in another rain/snow mix occurring Saturday through
Sunday morning. Though there remains some uncertainty, rain
looks favored to prevail more than snow, which means little to
low accumulations are expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period with only some
fair weather cumulus this afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...ZH