-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
034
FXUS61 KAKQ 251740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
140 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides off the coast and out to sea this afternoon
into Wednesday. A cold front approaches the area later Wednesday
afternoon and crosses the region Wednesday night into Thursday,
bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure builds north of the region for the later portion of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper trough over the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast, with upper level ridging now displaced
to the west over the mid and lower Mississippi River Valley. At
the surface, weak high pressure is centered over the region.
Mostly clear early this morning with temperatures in the 60s for
most of the area, and upper 50s for the NW Piedmont counties.
There is some patchy shallow ground fog over s-central VA and
interior NE NC. Surface high pressure slides across the region
today and nudging offshore by afternoon as upper level ridging
builds in from the west. Sunny and dry today. Temperatures are
expected to be near to above seasonal averages today with highs
ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s, with mid 90s possible
in the RIC metro. Dewpoints will be rather comfortable for late
June ranging from the mid 50s to around 60F during peak heating.
Surface high pressure settles off the Southeast coast tonight.
Mostly clear and warm with low temperatures in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with a light SSW wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat builds again Wednesday and heat indices likely exceed 100F
  again.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late Wednesday
  afternoon into Wednesday night, with a few storms potentially
  being strong or severe with damaging wind gusts to primary
  threat.

The ridge aloft prevails much of the day Wednesday. Although,
and upper trough and cold front will approach from the NW later
in the day. 850mb temperatures surge to 20-22C ahead of the cold
front supporting high temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100F.
Dewpoints during peak heating will generally be in the mid 60s
to around 70F, which will result in heat indices primarily
100-104F. Mostly sunny through mid-afternoon and then becoming
partly sunny with a SW wind of 10-15 mph. Forecast soundings
show the boundary layer remains capped much of the day prior to
some height falls arriving later Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. This should allow some showers/tstms to arrive
later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, especially
across the northern tier of the area. Any tstms will be capable
of producing strong wind gusts given a deep well mixed boundary
layer. The cold front weakens and settles into the area
Wednesday night. Given this, some showers and a few tstms could
linger overnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy with lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

The cold front slowly pushes south across southern VA and NE NC
Thursday as high pressure and a drier airmass build into the
northern tier of the area. Showers/tstms are expected to
redevelop along the boundary Thursday afternoon with the highest
chc across SE VA and NE NC. High temperatures return to
seasonally hot levels ranging from the upper 80s to around 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday and Sunday and
  potentially more humid.

- Flash drought conditions continuing across most of the area.

High pressure builds across New England Thursday night into
Friday, and then settles off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday.
This will bring mainly dry conditions. Lows Thursday night are
forecast to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s, followed by highs
Friday ranging from the mid 80s NE to lower 90s SW. Highs
Saturday are forecast to be in the lower to mid 90s after
morning lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A cold front
approaches from the NW Sunday. Therefore, temperatures will
likely soar into the mid to upper 90s ahead of the front based
on the current timing. Dewpoints potentially remain in the lower
to mid 70s (mid 70s mainly toward the coast) during peak
heating Saturday and Sunday. This is supported by the LREF and
individual deterministic models, but is below the too high
mid/upper 70s shown by the NBM. Resultant heat indices are in
the upper 90s to lower 100s Saturday, and then potentially
105-109F for much of the CWA Sunday. There is a chc of
showers/tstms later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the
cold front drops through the region. Not as hot Monday with
highs in the mid 80s to near 90F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours.
Winds will generally be S to SW at ~10 kt except for local sea
breezes near the coast this afternoon. Skies remain clear
outside of high clouds through most of the period, with SCT
cumulus (5000-6000 ft AGL) developing by early Wed aftn.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. A
weakening cold front will approach from the NW later Wednesday
aftn and then will drop into the area Wednesday night bringing
a 20-50% chc of showers/tstms (highest at SBY). This front will
be slow to push through southern VA and NC NE Thursday with a
30-50% chc of aftn/early evening showers/tstms. High pressure
and dry conditions return Friday into Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1255 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs conditions expected across the middle Ches Bay tonight,
  north of New Point Comfort.

High pressure slides off the coast and out to sea late this
afternoon into Wed. Light winds will turn to the SE or S at
10-15 kt by this evening. A brief period of SCA conditions will
occur this evening into early Wed morning (7 pm this evening to
4 am Wed morning), over the middle two Ches Bay zones (630-631)
with S winds 15-20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt. Seas build to 3-4ft
N tonight into Wed, and waves in the Bay ~2ft with increasing
southerly flow. 4-5 ft seas will be possible for a brief period
north of Parramore Island late Wed aftn and evening. Another
weakening cold front pushes through the region during Thu. The
wind shifts to NE then E or SE late week and is expected to be
at or below 15kt.

Low rip current risk is forecast for all beaches today. A low rip
risk is expected again on Wed given southerly flow and short
wave periods at or below 5 secs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JDM/TMG