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425
FXUS61 KAKQ 170639
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
239 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure drifts off the New England coast through midweek.
A very warm and dry pattern then looks to take hold for much of
the week ahead. Heat peaks this weekend with highs in the upper
90s to low 100s.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A few degrees warmer today as ridging builds over the Carolinas
  and southern Virginia.

1024mb high pressure is centered SE of Cape Cod but the ridge axis
extends back to the SW into SE VA and eastern NC. Aloft, the well-
advertised upper ridge will continue to strengthen today. Satellite
shows some scattered to broken mid level clouds over the western and
southern counties. Expect mostly sunny (E) to partly cloudy (W)
skies by this afternoon as some moisture is noted at the top of the
mixed layer on forecast soundings. A weak lee trough will set up
just east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon and despite large scale
subsidence associated with the strengthening upper ridge, we could
see a rogue thunderstorm or two sneak into the far west or northwest
counties this afternoon into the early evening. Not at all confident
regarding potential storm coverage so will keep PoPs around 20% for
western portions of Prince Edward and Fluvanna counties.
Temperatures will rise into the low 90s for areas along and west of
I-95 with upper 80s to the east and mid 80s along the coast. Dew
points will be higher than we have seen in recent day with mid 60s
likely for the Piedmont with low 60s elsewhere during peak mixing
this afternoon. Any shower/storm activity will wane quickly this
evening with overnight lows generally in the mid 60s (highest in the
Piedmont and near the coast where low level moisture will be more
robust).
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Continued warm and dry Tuesday and Wednesday as the core of the
  upper ridge lifts just north of the local area.

Surface high pressure remains anchored offshore Tuesday and
Wednesday with low level onshore flow keeping an atypical
temperature pattern in place. Highs each day will be in the upper
80s SE (mid 80s at near the coast) to the low 90s NW. Dew points
will remain in the 60s which will keep heat index values very near
the air temp. Clouds, outside of typical afternoon cumulus, will be
hard to come by with strong ridging aloft. Low temps will fall into
the 60s each night with low 70s possible along the coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm and dry weather persists through late week. However,
  humidity levels remain in check through Friday.

- Hottest days look to be Saturday and Sunday, with humidity also
  recovering closer to seasonal levels during this period.

The anomalously strong upper heat ridge continues to build, as it
drifts north along the eastern seaboard, peaking at around ~600 dam
over the northeast Friday morning. This will maintain the atypical
temperature pattern Thursday and Friday, with slightly warmer highs
to the north, as E-SE winds keep coastal areas into the Hampton
Roads/N OBX area slightly cooler. High temps Thursday will be in the
low 90s inland with mid and upper 80s closer to the water.
And, as surface dew points look to remain in the 60s, we likely will
not see heat indices in the triple digits. Inland temps rise into
the mid 90s for the NW half of the area on Friday with low 90s to
the SE (upper 80s near the immediate coast). Dew points look to mix
out into the 60s once again so max heat index values will only be a
degree or two higher than the air temperature.

Looking ahead, the hottest part of the week still looks to be
Saturday and Sunday as high pressure slides offshore of the
Mid-Atlantic coast into the western Atlantic. A more typical
summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern allows heat to build further
Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 90s, as dewpoints/PW
values recover back toward climo normal values. EPS/GEFS probs
and thickness schemes from both the ECMWF and GFS favoring more
widespread upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into the
upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday and potentially 105+ in spots
on Sunday. Overnight lows stay in the 60s Thursday night but
increase toward 70 degrees Friday night. Will add a few degrees
to lows each night this weekend with mid 70s likely by Sunday
morning.

A low chance for thunderstorms may materialize by Sunday, as a weak
lee trough sets up and low level moisture increases.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

High pressure is centered off the coast as of 06z. VFR with
SCT-BKN mid clouds with bases of 6-8kft around and SW of RIC.
The wind is SE ~5 kt. VFR and dry conditions will prevail the
next 24 hours. Mostly sunny today with FEW-SCT aftn CU inland.
Winds become S ~10kt inland and SE ~10kt along the coast late
in the morning and into the aftn.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Friday as
high pressure remains centered off the coast.
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&&

.MARINE...
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As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
from this afternoon through the evening for a brief period of 20 to
25 knot wind gusts out of the S-SE.

- A summerlike and relatively benign pattern remains in place across
the waters for much of the remainder of the week.

High pressure that is now offshore will remain centered north of
Bermuda for much of the week. Winds are S-SE at ~10 kt early this
morning, but will increase again later today. With a slightly
tighter pressure gradient this aftn/evening when compared to
yesterday, am expecting a brief (2-4 hour) period of 15-20 kt S-SE
winds (w/ gusts to 20-25 kt) between 3 PM and midnight (earlier
S/later N) on the bay. Local wind probabilities now show about a 50-
75 percent chc of sustained 18kt+ winds across the bay. Therefore,
went ahead and issued SCAs for all Ches Bay zones from this aftn
through late this evening. Otherwise, the pattern becomes quite
stagnant through the remainder of the week with southerly winds of 5-
15 kt with the strongest winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

Seas generally 2 to 3 feet in the ocean and waves 1-3 ft in the bay
through Wed. Seas may increase to ~4 feet on Thursday and Friday as
some SE swell moves toward the area.

Will continue with the moderate rip current risk for all beaches
today. Flow becomes more southerly on Tuesday which will keep the
moderate rip current risk confined to the northern beaches. By late
week, there is a hint of a SE swell that may push seas to ~4 ft. If
this happens, there will be elevated rip current risks by
Thu/Fri.
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&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     this evening for ANZ632-634.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI