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139
FXUS61 KAKQ 241803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
203 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly crosses the area today and there is a
chance for showers or storms through this afternoon. Drier
weather returns tonight into Tuesday, but humidity and
temperatures increase yet again for Wednesday. Another cold
front approaches the region later Wednesday into Thursday,
bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Early this afternoon, a cold front has made its way through much
of the area and is currently located from far SE Virginia Beach
and extends back into NE North Carolina. It is quite unstable
ahead of the front with MLCAPE ~2500 J/kg in addition to
modest shear of ~35 knots. As a result, have seen widespread
convection develop along and ahead of the front with some storms
becoming severe (damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat).
As typical this time of the year, the front will likely slow
down as it approaches the Albemarle Sound and eventually stall
south of our area. This could lead to a heavy rain threat for
southern portions of our NE North Carolina counties due to
training storms. The 12z HREF supports this thinking, showing a
10 to 30% probability of 3" in 3 hours focused closer to the
Albemarle Sound. Widespread flooding is not anticipated due to
the dry conditions, but some localized flooding issues cannot be
ruled out for areas near the sound. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
remains in effect for portions of our NE North Carolina
counties until 8 PM, though there is a good chance that the
watch will end early for our counties as the training storms
continue to work over the environment.

Behind the front, drier air continues to filter into the region
with dewpoints now dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s
across our western counties. Cannot rule out a stray shower this
afternoon, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area.
Temperatures range from upper 80s to lower 90s behind the front.

All activity likely shifts south of the area by this evening
with more comfortable weather settling into the region. Clouds
will decrease from NW to SE, with mainly clear skies expected
tonight. Temperatures fall back into the low to mid 60s away
from the immediate coast, with upper 50s possible in the
typically cooler rural spots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining hot Tuesday, though humidity levels will be comfortable.

- Heat builds again Wednesday and heat indices may near or exceed
  100 F again.

Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected for
Tuesday with high pressure over the area. While air temperatures
will be in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast), dewpoints will
only be in the 50s to lower 60s, making for a more comfortable day.

High pressure slides offshore by Tuesday night. Winds become
southerly Tuesday night which will bring more humid air back into
the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The hot and humid weather returns again for Wednesday
with temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 90s for much of
the area (possibly 100 in a few typically hotter spots). Heat
indices increase to 100-105 F in the afternoon and Heat Advisories
may be needed. Another cold front will approach from the
N/NW late in the day. Guidance is trending more aggressive with
shower and storm potential with this feature, especially in the
later afternoon and evening. The highest coverage will tend to focus
over northern and northeast portions of the area. A few storms could
approach strong or severe levels given moderately strong instability
and increasing wind fields aloft (best chance N). Shower/storm
chances linger into the overnight period with temps generally in the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front
  later Wednesday and Thursday.

- Flash drought conditions developing across most of the area.

The front will drop S Wednesday night into Thursday, focusing the
thunderstorm chances across southern VA and NE NC Thursday
afternoon. Another period of stronger storms will be possible
during the afternoon heating period, but lower shear and wind fields
across the S suggest a lower threat. Per collaboration with
neighboring offices to our S, have introduced likely PoPs in NE NC.
High temps Thursday generally in the upper 80s to around 90 F.
High pressure will situate N of the area behind the front Friday,
shifting offshore by the weekend. An isolated shower or storm
cannot be ruled out Friday across NC or the far SW Piedmont, but
most should stay dry and mostly sunny. Hot weather is expected for
the weekend as an upper-level dome of high pressure (594+ dm)
expands across the S-central and SE CONUS. The ridge retreats W as a
trough drops S of the Great Lakes later Sunday into Monday, bringing
a cold front through the area. Scattered showers and storms are thus
possible Sunday ahead of this front.

Unfortunately, generally low aerial coverage of rainfall through the
extended period suggests continued dry conditions and
potential drought development or expansion.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

The convection from earlier has largely shifted south of the
terminals, with only ECG still dealing with some lingering
issues. Showers and storms will remain near ECG for the next
couple of hours before settling down after ~20z. Periods of
sub-VFR VSBYs (and potentially CIGs) with any showers or storms.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the
forecast period. Winds become NW in the wake of the front this
afternoon, occasionally gusting to around 20 knots before
becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR flying conditions are expected through
midweek. The next chance for widely scattered showers and storms
is Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories end this morning for the Chesapeake Bay,
  lower James River, Currituck Sound, and the coastal Atlantic.

- Benign marine conditions expected tonight into Tuesday.

- Modest southerly flow returns midweek.

Low pressure is centered over northern New England early this
morning, with a trailing and weakening cold front approaching the
Mid-Atlantic coast from the NW. The wind remains SW 15-20kt with
gusts to ~25kt for most of the marine area aside from the upper
rivers. Seas range from 3-5ft S to 5-7ft N, with waves in the Ches.
Bay 2-4ft. SCAs have been extended to 7 AM for the Ches. Bay, lower
James River, and Currituck Sound, and continue through 10 AM for the
coastal Atlantic.

The cold front pushes offshore this morning into this evening as
weak high pressure builds in from the N. Drier air arrives behind
the front but not much cooler. The wind will shift to NW 10-15kt
across the northern tier of the area later this morning. In vicinity
of the coasts of SE VA/NE NC, the wind will initially be WSW early
Monday, and then become light and locally variable in the aftn as
the front stalls. By tonight, the wind becomes NNW 5-10kt for most
of the marine area, and 10-15kt offshore N of Parramore Is. The
front washes out in vicinity of the Carolina coastal plain Tuesday
with very weak flow expected through early-mid aftn Tuesday. High
pressure rebuilds offshore by the middle of the week with sub-SCA
southerly flow returning, generally S to SSW 10-15kt with gusts up
to 20kt and strongest late aftn and evening Tuesday and Wednesday.
Seas will mainly be 2-3ft tonight into Tuesday with 1-2ft waves in
the Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft N midweek and waves in the Bay
~2ft with increasing southerly flow. Another weakening cold front
pushes through the region Thursday into Thursday night. The wind
shifts to NE then E late week and is expected to be at or below 15kt
as of this forecast cycle.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high min temp was set 78 was set at Richmond yesterday
(6/23) and a record high max temp of 99 for the date was tied
at Norfolk.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...