Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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200 FXUS61 KAKQ 260748 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 348 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure slides farther offshore today. A cold front approaches the area later this afternoon and crosses the region tonight into Thursday, bringing the a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds north of the region for the latter portion of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Heat builds again today and heat indices likely exceed 100F again. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late this afternoon into Wednesday night, with a few storms potentially being strong or severe with damaging wind gusts to primary threat. GOES water vapor channels depict an upper ridge over the central CONUS with quasi-zonal flow from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast at the base of a broad trough over the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the Carolina coast and prevails locally. Mostly clear early this morning with temperatures in the 70s and a SSW wind of 5-10 mph. The trough over the Great Lakes will dig SE today into this evening pushing a cold front into the Ohio Valley. The low-level flow increases out of the SW today, allowing 850mb temperatures to surge to 20-22C ahead of the cold front. This supports high temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100F. Dewpoints should mix out during the day and drop into the mid to upper 60s (perhaps even a degree or two lower) during peak heating. So while temperatures will be near 100F, heat indices will generally range from 100-104F. Mostly sunny through mid-afternoon and then becoming partly sunny with a SW wind of 10-15 mph. Forecast soundings show that the boundary layer remains capped much of the day prior to some height falls arriving later this afternoon into tonight. 00z/26 CAMs continue to develop scattered tstms in the higher elevations of W/NW VA by 3-4 PM before trying to push SE into NW portions of the FA. The highest tstm chances will be from 5 PM-1 AM mainly north of I-64 as the actual front nears the area before the convection gradually weakens early Thursday morning. Locations south of a Farmville- Richmond-Williamsburg line will likely see little to no rain through Thursday morning, with localized totals in excess of 1" possible from Louisa County to the MD Eastern Shore. In addition, any storm will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts given very strong sfc heating, a deep well mixed boundary layer, and some mid-level drying. In fact, forecast soundings from most models show DCAPE values of 1200-1500 J/kg Wed aftn/evening. The Day 1 convective outlook from SPC is very similar with only a slight nudge southward of the slight and marginal risk areas. Convection diminishes in coverage overnight. However, some convection will linger overnight with some instability and the front settling over the area. Lows tonight will mainly be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - A few thunderstorms are possible across SE VA/NE NC Thursday afternoon-evening. The cold front slowly pushes south across southern VA and NE NC Thursday as high pressure and a drier airmass build into the northern tier of the area. Showers/tstms are expected to redevelop along the boundary Thursday afternoon with the highest chc across SE VA and NE NC. High temperatures return to seasonally hot levels ranging from the mid 80s to near 90F. Shower/tstms largely dissipate or move to our south by late Thursday evening, although some isolated activity could linger into the early overnight hours over southern VA. High pressure builds across New England Thursday night into Friday following the frontal passage. Lows Thursday night fall into the mid 60s-lower 70s. Easterly flow Friday will keep highs in the lower to mid 80s along the coast, and seasonally hot inland with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday and Sunday and potentially more humid. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a cold front. Surface high pressure initially settles off the coast Friday night into early Saturday, with some moisture returning as a weak warm front lifts through the area. Therefore, there is a slight chc to low chc of showers and perhaps a tstm from central VA and the Piedmont to the MD Eastern Shore Friday night into early Saturday morning. Lows Friday night are mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Otherwise, the heat builds back over the local area this weekend as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. Another upper trough and cold front approach the area from the NW late this weekend, and the cold front is progged to cross the area Sunday night. Forecast high temperatures are mainly in the mid 90s on both Saturday and Sunday, with aftn dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s (mid 70s mainly toward the coast) during peak heating on both days. This is supported by the deterministic guidance and MOS guidance, but is below the mid/upper 70s shown by the NBM (which is likely too high especially given how dry it has been). Resultant heat indices are in the upper 90s to lower 100s Saturday, and then potentially 105-109F for much of the CWA Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered tstms are possible on Saturday afternoon (mainly W of I-95), with a better chc of showers/tstms later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the cold front drops through the region. A slight reprieve in the heat is possible early next week in the wake of the cold front as the 00z/26 EPS and GEFS each depict below average 850mb temperature anomalies Monday and Tuesday. However, the ensemble guidance also surges the heat back into the region by the middle of next week just prior to Independence Day.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure is centered off the Carolina coast as of 06z. VFR under some this cirrus with a S to SSW wind of 5-10kt. VFR today with SCT aftn CU with bases of 5-7kft. The wind will be SSW of 8-12kt with occasional gusts to ~20kt. A cold front approaches from the NW later this afternoon and drops into the region tonight. There is a 40-60% chc of late aftn/evening showers/tstms for RIC and SBY, with a 15-30% chc of showers/tstms and ORF, PHF, and ECG tonight. A few tstms could produce strong wind gusts along with brief flight restrictions in heavy rain. Overall coverage of showers/tstms diminishes after midnight. This front will be slow to push through southern VA and NC NE Thursday with a 30-50% chc of redeveloping aftn/early evening showers/tstms. High pressure and dry conditions return Friday into Saturday. A chance for showers/tstms again later Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 955 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - SCAs conditions expected across the Chesapeake Bay tonight. High pressure slides off the coast and out to sea tonight into Wed. S winds of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt (potentially up to 30 kt across the upper bay) continue early tonight across the Ches Bay before winds become SW 10-15 kt late tonight. As such, SCAs are in effect for the Ches Bay. Winds average a bit lower across the rivers with occasional gusts to 20 kt. Therefore, have kept the rivers out of the SCAs. Seas build to 3-4 ft N tonight into Wed, and waves in the Bay ~2ft with increasing southerly flow. 4-5 ft seas will be possible for a brief period north of Parramore Island late Wed aftn and evening. Another weakening cold front pushes through the region during Thu. The wind shifts to NE then E or SE late week and is expected to be at or below 15kt. Low rip current risk is forecast for all beaches today. A low rip risk is expected again on Wed given southerly flow and short wave periods at or below 5 secs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630- 631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI NEAR TERM...AJZ/ERI SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...JDM/RMM/TMG