-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
888
FXUS61 KALY 231804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
204 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain showers are
expected mainly west of the Hudson River through tonight. Drier
weather and cool temperatures will return for Tuesday, with rain
chances increasing areawide Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 110 PM EDT, skies were generally overcast
areawide with mid to high level clouds, though some breaks were
noted on latest visible satellite imagery mainly from the
Catskills into central New York. Rain showers were generally
west and south of the CWA where forcing is stronger, though some
returns on radar were noted in northern Herkimer, Hamilton and
Dutchess counties. I`ve maintained chance to likely POPs in
these locations with the latest near term update, with the
remainder of the forecast being on track. See previous
discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0345 AM EDT]...Persistent low and mid-level
clouds early this morning will be supplemented by enhanced high
cloud coverage arriving from the west as an upper-level
shortwave passes to the north of the region through today. Ahead
of increased high cloud coverage, brief cloud breaks may be
sufficient for areas of valley fog to develop overnight, however
coverage is expected to be very limited. Any fog will quickly
dissipate after sunrise.

The aforementioned upper shortwave will lift north of the region
as surface ridging extending southwestward into western New
England remains in place through the day. Moisture may be
sufficient to see isolated to scattered rain showers move into
the region from the west later this morning into this afternoon,
most likely across the eastern Catskills, Mohawk and Schoharie
Valleys, and southwestern Adirondacks. Along the Hudson Valley
and eastward, dry weather is anticipated although a few
sprinkles or brief light showers cannot be entirely ruled out.
Any showers will likely end by this evening.

Seasonable temperatures are expected. Following morning lows in
the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region, temperatures will
rise to afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high
terrain and mid 60s to low 70s at lower elevations. Modest
clearing tonight behind the exiting shortwave will see slightly
cooler overnight lows in the 40s to near 50 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak upper-level ridging briefly builds back over the region on
Tuesday while surface high pressure continues to nose in from
the northeast, yielding dry conditions and morning clearing.
Beneath partly cloudy skies, seasonable temperatures are
expected, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s
in high terrain and mid 60s to low 70s at lower elevations.

A positively-tilted upper trough will approach the region
Tuesday night through Wednesday, before passing to the north
late Wednesday night. Clouds will increase by Tuesday evening
ahead of the system, with slightly milder overnight lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s expected across the region. Rain showers
may begin to arrive from the west as early as late Tuesday
evening in the southwestern Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley, but the bulk of the precipitation will hold off until
Wednesday morning, especially for areas along and east of the
Hudson. Numerous showers are most likely Wednesday afternoon,
evening, and overnight as the trough makes its nearest approach.
Modest elevated instability may allow for a few rumbles of
thunder, however severe weather is not anticipated. Ongoing
precipitation will see seasonably cool temperatures during the
day on Wednesday, with afternoon highs only in the mid 50s to
mid 60s, while overnight lows will remain relatively mild, in
the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level shortwave will be moving across the Northeast on
Thursday. Although models do suggest this feature will become
closed off at 500 hpa, it should be fairly progressive as it
moves across the region. The deepest moisture will probably
remain well south of the region, but some showers are still
expected across the region, especially northern areas, which
will be closer to the better forcing. At this point, best timing
for showers looks earlier in the day, as the chance looks to
decrease towards evening as the best forcing shifts to the east.
Overall, QPF looks fairly light and any rainfall is much needed,
with no hydro impacts expected. Skies should be fairly cloudy
on Thursday, but some clearing is possible late. Highs will be
held in the 60s for most, although some low to mid 70s is
possible in valley areas, especially if some clearing does occur
by afternoon.

Behind the departing shortwave, high pressure looks to build in
from the west. Upper level ridging west of the area over the
Great Lakes will shift eastward and expand over the area, with
rising heights and warming temps aloft for Friday into the
weekend. Some models suggest an omega block will setup across
the area, with closed lows to the southwest over the Tennessee
Valley (from a decaying tropical system) and to the east (from
the departing upper level shortwave). As a result, another
prolonged period of warm and dry weather is expected for Friday
through the weekend and into early next week. Daytime highs
should be in the lower to middle 70s in valley areas (60s for
the high terrain) with a good deal of sunshine. Overnight lows
will be in the 40s to near 50 with a mostly clear sky. Temps
should be mild enough to avoid any frost concerns. Some patchy
fog is possible in valley areas around daybreak each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions will continue this afternoon ahead of a weak
upper level disturbance. Some reduction to high MVFR cigs around
3 kft AGL may occur at KPSF prior to 00Z/TUE. Cigs will be
mainly 4-6 kft AGL with mid level clouds 10-15 kft AGL. Light
rain showers or sprinkles may impact KALB-KPSF south and VCSH
groups were used.

The skies will clear north of KALB after midnight with some
residual mid level clouds KALB-KPSF south to KPOU. We did keep
some MVFR cigs overnight at KPSF with cigs 2.5-3 kft AGL lasting
through 12Z/TUE. Sct-bkn mid to high clouds will continue
through 12Z/TUE for KALB/KGFL with some broken sky cover
possible in the 4-6 kft AGL range.

The winds will be east to southeast at less than 10 KT this
afternoon and will become light and variable in direction at 5
KT or less shortly before or after midnight. The winds will be
northeast to southeast at 4-8 KT after 12Z/TUE.

Outlook...

Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night to Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
NEAR TERM...Picard/Speck
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula