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300
FXUS61 KALY 192027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
427 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous heat and humidity persist across eastern New
York and western New England as an anomalously strong, upper-level
high pressure system dominates much of the Northeast. Oppressive
heat in addition to isolated to scattered chances for showers and
thunderstorms, persist through Thursday. Temperatures will see a
gradual waning trend beginning Friday as a cold front approaches the
region. However, temperatures will still be on the warm side through
the weekend with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
**Heat Advisories remain in effect for all of eastern New York
 and western New England through 8 PM Thursday**

Day two of our mid-June heat wave continues this afternoon with
heat indices having reached the upper 90s to low 100s across
much of the area. The few exceptions lie in isolated pockets in
the Eastern Catskills and Upper Hudson Valley where
thunderstorms, some strong to severe, have cooled off the air
temperature sufficiently enough to drop heat index values to the
mid 80s to low 90s.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will persist throughout the
remainder of the afternoon into this evening before the loss of
daytime heating abruptly weakens instability across the area.
Though most storms have not been severe at this point, a few
ground truth reports of downed trees in the Upper Hudson Valley have
verified stronger wind gusts resulting from these storms.
Outside of this hazard, lightning and locally heavy downpours
have been the main resultants and hazards from most storms this
afternoon. That said, storms that develop and/or persist this
afternoon will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours
with isolated strong to potentially damaging wind gusts. Small
hail also cannot be ruled out in the event of a stronger storm,
but due to warm temperatures aloft and at the surface, large
hail is not likely. Caution is advised for those participating
in outdoor activities especially in the Eastern Catskills and
Lake George- Saratoga Region.

With the near 600 dam closed high pressure remaining parked more
or less overhead throughout the night, low temperatures are
not expected to fall below the upper 60s to low 70s. It will be
another muggy night with dew points remaining elevated.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
**Heat Advisories continue through 8 PM Thursday for all of
 eastern New York and western New England**

Despite the gradual southward sink of the upper high and general
flattening trend of the ridging aloft throughout the day
tomorrow in response to a cold front approaching from the
northwest, another day of oppressive heat is anticipated. High
temperatures will range from the mid/upper 80s at higher
elevations to low/mid 90s in valley and lower-lying areas.
Dew points progged to be in the upper 60s to low 70s once again
will lead to heat index values of mid/upper 90s to low 100s in
valley areas and up to 95 degrees in the Southwest Adirondacks,
Eastern Catskills and Southern Greens. Therefore, we will
continue the widespread Heat Advisory through tomorrow evening.

Once again there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening, however, coverage
may be a bit more on the scattered side than the current
isolated nature of storms. This will be courtesy of a surface
trough developing between the currently dominant anticyclone
sliding south and west and another high building to the north
and west in southeast Canada. The enhanced convergence of this
feature will provide additional forcing such that showers and
thunderstorms are able to increase in coverage across the area.
Additionally, with sufficient instability (SBCAPE on the order
of 1500 to 2500 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates, some
storms will be capable of becoming stronger to possibly severe
with strong to potentially damaging wind gusts serving as the
greatest threat. Storms will also be capable of producing
locally heavy downpours and small hail. Isolated large hail (1"
in diameter) cannot be ruled out, but with persistence of warm
air both aloft and at the surface, sufficient melting is
expected to restrict hail size. It is important to note that
while the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Eastern
New York and western New England in a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms tomorrow, severe storm coverage is likely to be
relatively isolated due to limited shear and warm temperatures
aloft. Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage and
taper off upon the loss of daytime heating tomorrow evening into
tomorrow night yielding a fairly dry overnight period. Much
like tonight, conditions will be muggy with low temperatures
ranging from the mid/upper 60s to low 70s.

By Friday morning, ridging aloft will have become relatively
flat, leading to flow becoming zonal. Geopotential height will
remain high, however, so while high temperatures Friday should
be cooler than Thursday, it will still be rather warm for mid-
June standards for most places. The other contributing factor
to this will be an approaching, weak cold front tracking from
northwest to southeast across the area throughout the day. This
will lead to rather variable highs across the region with
mid/upper 70s to low 80s at higher elevations and mid to upper
80s and even pockets of low 90s (lower Mid-Hudson Valley)
throughout most valley areas. At this time, heat indices look to
be highest in the Hudson Valley where low to mid 90s are
possible. However, with uncertainties still in existence
pertaining to the timing of the front, we have chosen to hold
off on any additional heat advisories for these areas. It is
certainly possible that once confidence increases, additional
products could be necessary, but will certainly be much less
widespread than the past several days.

With the passage of the front, additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected across eastern New York and western
New England throughout the day Friday. At this time, the
greatest instability lies south and west of the Capital District
where the greatest heating will likely be allowed to take place
ahead of the front. Here, a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms has been issued by the SPC. Strong to isolated
storms are again likely to be isolated in terms of coverage.
Showers and possibly some embedded rumbles of thunder persist
into Friday night as the front becomes stalled just south of the
region along the NY/PA border. Low temperatures will fair a bit
cooler than recent days with upper 50s expected in the Southwest
Adirondacks and Southern Greens and low to upper 60s elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The long term period generally looks to start unsettled with the
chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday.
The aforementioned stalled boundary looks to linger just south
of the region Saturday, causing the chance for additional rounds
of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. High
temperatures will be several degrees cooler Saturday, though
still relatively warm, with mid/upper 70s to mid 80s anticipated
across the region.

Sunday, the stalled boundary lifts north and east across the
area as a warm front as a surface low traverses southeast
Ontario into southern Quebec and a positively- tilted upper-
level trough begins to dig into the region. With a trailing cold
front remaining well upstream, a warm sector will be created
across the region, such that more showers and thunderstorms will
be likely. This is the period to watch as some storms could
become strong to severe with the anticipation of instability
increases intersecting zones of higher shear. Will continue to
monitor this period over the coming days for severe weather
potential. Highs Sunday will increase to the upper 70s/low 80s
at higher elevations to mid/upper 80s and possibly some low 90s
in valley areas.

Showers and thunderstorm chances continue into Monday as the
upper-level trough swings through the region in tandem with the
cold front. Directly in its wake, upper ridging builds in to
force the return to dry conditions Tuesday through the remainder
of the long term period. This will, however, mean the return to
hot weather as temperatures rise back into widespread mid/upper
80s to low 90s by Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A hot and humid air mass in place over the region.  With this air
mass overhead, some scattered thunderstorms have been developing.
One cluster of thunderstorms will be near KGFL over the next hour or
two, so have included a TEMPO there for a brief period of gusty
winds and lower visibility to IFR levels within heavy rainfall.
There will be less of a threat for the other sites, but will still
mention a VCSH for KALB.  Otherwise, flying conditions will be VFR
through the afternoon hours with sct cu around 4-7 kft and some
passing cirrus clouds as well.  Southerly winds will be 5 to 10 kts.

For tonight, any convection will dissipate, allowing for fairly
clear and muggy conditions overnight.  With the rain at KGFL and
humid air in place, will mention IFR radiational fog there for
tonight, as this also occurred last night.  Elsewhere, fog is less
of a threat, although there could be a brief period at KPSF towards
daybreak.  Just some few-sct cirrus clouds will be around overnight
with very light or calm winds and no additional precip.

On Thursday morning, flying conditions will be VFR.  Clear skies
will give way to some diurnal cumulus around 3-6 kft and some cirrus
as well.  South to southwest winds will be 5 kts or so and will
increase towards afternoon.  Some developing showers or t-storms
could impact the TAF sites on Thursday afternoon or evening.
Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures...

Wednesday, June 19:
Albany - 94 (1995)
Glens Falls - 97 (1995)
Poughkeepsie - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)

Thursday, June 20:
Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)

Friday, June 21:
Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)

Record High Minimum Temperatures...

Wednesday, June 19:
Albany - 71 (1976)
Glens Falls - 67 (1905, 1949, 1976, 2017)
Poughkeepsie - 73 (1993)

Thursday, June 20:
Albany - 73 (1893)
Glens Falls - 68 (1964)
Poughkeepsie - 71 (1931)

Friday, June 21:
Albany - 72 (1923)
Glens Falls - 71 (1953)
Poughkeepsie - 73 (1931)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Frugis
CLIMATE...Picard/Rathbun