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128
FXUS64 KAMA 260550
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Scattered showers and storms should initiate later this afternoon
and evening along a sfc boundary currently observed around the
northern Panhandles. As we continue to heat up in the 90s to low
100s, we`re holding onto sfc dew points surprisingly well
(widespread upper 50s to mid 60s). 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE have
built up along and south of the boundary as a result, but remains
capped as of 2 PM. Increased convergence along the boundary along
with a little help from a weak disturbance is starting to get
attempts at convective development over the northeast Panhandles.
This trend should continue to spread south and westward toward the
central TX Panhandle in the coming hours as inhibition gets
eroded. Shear is marginal but sufficient for an organized severe
storm or two, about 30 kts sfc-6km, and DCAPE values are in the
1200-1500 J/kg range. These parameters will lend mostly a damaging
wind threat, but also a low chance for some severe hail as well,
especially for the east-northeast Panhandles where better upper
level support exists. Activity should wane and exit to our south
through the evening hours, likely ending by midnight. It`s also
worth mentioning that rainfall could be heavy at times, since PWAT
values are over 1.25" for most of the area.

Hot temperatures and rain chances return tomorrow, with widespread
highs in the upper 90s and 100s forecast once again. Don`t
currently anticipate heat advisory criteria to be in play for most
of the area, as temperature and heat index values should remain
below 105 degrees (with the exception of Palo Duro Canyon).
Confidence in precip potential goes up markedly tomorrow,
especially for our western stacks of counties. The question is
just how far east will activity survive? Upper level ridging
seated to our southwest will continue to support northwest flow to
the area, allowing areas of convection to initiate off the
Rockies of New Mexico, potentially expanding as far as the western
to northwest half of the CWA. This activity could be more
widespread compared to recent days if dry air is less prevalent,
with heavy rain certainly on the table again. But, there are
indications that dry air mixing may impeded eastward progress of
rain through the day, keeping higher POPs of 40-60% limited to the
far west- northwest Panhandles where another boundary is forecast
to stall. Confidence in severe weather is low right now, but
damaging wind gusts are never fully out of the question this time
of year.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

An upper level ridge will get suppressed to the south and east
Thursday through next Monday.  This will put the Panhandles on the
southern edge of the faster westerly flow.  Several short wave
troughs will move through this flow to bring a daily chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the northern areas. However, a
cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles Friday night
and it is expected to pull up stationary across the southern Texas
Panhandle on Saturday.  This stationary front would then be a
potential focus for additional showers and thunderstorms for the
southern Texas Panhandle.  But the devil will be in the details as
the better chance of rain will be in association with where this
boundary sets up. Rain chances are then expected to wane Sunday into
Monday as the upper level ridge builds back closer to the
Panhandles.  This set up will take the subtropical moisture on a
more western track instead of more over the Panhandles.  High
temperatures will be a handful of degrees either side of 100 both
Thursday and Friday and then they will "cool" back down generally
the 90`s for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Higher confidence is placed for DHT to receive thunderstorm
activity later on this evening, so PROB30 groups have been issued
to address these higher probabilities. For the other two sites,
probabilities are not high enough at this time to anticipate
impacts on flight rules. For the 06Z TAF period, VCSH will suffice
at AMA and GUY since shower and possibly thunderstorm activity
may occur in the vicinity of these sites during the evening hours
of the day. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail for the rest of the
hours within the 06Z TAF period.

Rangel
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Amarillo TX               101  72  99  76 /  10  30   0  10
Beaver OK                  98  72  99  76 /   0  30  10  20
Boise City OK              98  67  95  70 /  40  40  20  10
Borger TX                 106  74 104  80 /  10  30   0  20
Boys Ranch TX             103  71 100  75 /  20  40   0  20
Canyon TX                 100  70  97  74 /  10  30   0  10
Clarendon TX              100  72  99  76 /  10  20   0  10
Dalhart TX                100  68  98  71 /  30  50  10  10
Guymon OK                  99  69  99  72 /  10  40  10  20
Hereford TX               102  71  99  75 /  10  30   0  10
Lipscomb TX               101  73 100  78 /  10  30  10  10
Pampa TX                  101  72  99  77 /  10  30   0  10
Shamrock TX               104  73 101  78 /  10  10   0  10
Wellington TX             104  74 102  78 /  10  10   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ317.

OK...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...55