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119
FXUS64 KAMA 201952
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
252 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Showers with isolated storms continue to move into the southern
Panhandles from Tropical Storm Alberto. Most of these are fairly
stable showers and the lightning threat is pretty minimal at this
time. There may be a little uptick in lightning as we move into
the later afternoon to early evening hours, with increased heating
and instability. Overall, if showers enhance into storms, the main
concern will be lightning, but we could have brief intense rain
rates given the tropical moisture advection over the area and
PWAT`s approaching 1.50". The southerly flow will shift more
southwesterly into Friday. The moisture will shift more to the
western Panhandles for Friday, but it`s possible that we don`t see
any showers or storms at all, as it may stay isolated to eastern
NM.

Weber
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper level trough moving across the northern CONUS will help
suppress the high over the southeast CONUS. This will help
transition the overall flow to a more zonal flow. Temperatures
will gradually rise, but the chances of showers and storms will be
limited. As we move into Sunday the trough will be further to the
east over the Great Lakes and that will help the zonal flow
transition to more northwest flow as the high rebuilds over the
Four Corners. This will lead to a decent chance of showers and
storms on Sunday evening, as there is a more pronounced shortwave
embedded in that flow. Monday looks pretty similar to Sunday, but
a weaker shortwave so a lower probability of showers or storms.
Tuesday and Wednesday will once again have a better shortwave and
a more amplified ridge associated, so temperatures will be even
warmer, RH values will be quite high for our area leading to heat
index`s in the 100-108 range across most area, as well as more
scattered storms.

Weber
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

All the TAF Sites are VFR to start the 18 UTC TAF period.
Scattered SHRA moving northwest could pass near or through any of
the TAF sites this afternoon and evening, bringing a brief period
of broken low ceilings, although confidence is too low to include
in the TAF, even at KAMA, which has the highest chance. Guidance
suggests that MVFR CIGS will develop at KAMA and KDHT early Friday
morning, and not out of the question that KGUY could see low
stratus as well. Southerly surface winds should pick up this
afternoon becoming sustained around 14-20 kts for a time before
diminishing this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX                67  85  68  95 /  20  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  67  89  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              62  84  65  94 /  10  20   0  10
Borger TX                  69  91  71 100 /  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              67  86  68  96 /  20  20  10   0
Canyon TX                  65  83  66  92 /  20  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               67  85  68  93 /  20  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 63  84  64  95 /  20  20  10   0
Guymon OK                  65  87  67  96 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                67  85  67  95 /  30  20   0   0
Lipscomb TX                69  91  71  98 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   67  87  69  96 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                69  89  69  96 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              69  89  70  96 /  10   0   0   0
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&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...LU