Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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929 FXUS64 KAMA 210543 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1243 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Showers with isolated storms continue to move into the southern Panhandles from Tropical Storm Alberto. Most of these are fairly stable showers and the lightning threat is pretty minimal at this time. There may be a little uptick in lightning as we move into the later afternoon to early evening hours, with increased heating and instability. Overall, if showers enhance into storms, the main concern will be lightning, but we could have brief intense rain rates given the tropical moisture advection over the area and PWAT`s approaching 1.50". The southerly flow will shift more southwesterly into Friday. The moisture will shift more to the western Panhandles for Friday, but it`s possible that we don`t see any showers or storms at all, as it may stay isolated to eastern NM. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Upper level trough moving across the northern CONUS will help suppress the high over the southeast CONUS. This will help transition the overall flow to a more zonal flow. Temperatures will gradually rise, but the chances of showers and storms will be limited. As we move into Sunday the trough will be further to the east over the Great Lakes and that will help the zonal flow transition to more northwest flow as the high rebuilds over the Four Corners. This will lead to a decent chance of showers and storms on Sunday evening, as there is a more pronounced shortwave embedded in that flow. Monday looks pretty similar to Sunday, but a weaker shortwave so a lower probability of showers or storms. Tuesday and Wednesday will once again have a better shortwave and a more amplified ridge associated, so temperatures will be even warmer, RH values will be quite high for our area leading to heat index`s in the 100-108 range across most area, as well as more scattered storms. Weber && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions are in place for now, but a shield of mid to low clouds is progressing northward into the Panhandles this evening. By morning hours, MVFR ceilings should have arrived at KAMA and KDHT, with slightly lower confidence that low ceilings will impact KGUY. Ceilings should lift some to VFR levels during the day as winds increase out of the southwest at 15-30 kts. Also can`t rule out some afternoon showers at KAMA and KDHT, but confidence remains on the low side. Otherwise expect conditions to further improve through the end of the period after 00z. Harrel
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX 85 68 95 71 / 10 0 0 10 Beaver OK 89 69 97 69 / 0 0 0 10 Boise City OK 84 65 94 66 / 20 0 10 10 Borger TX 91 71 100 73 / 10 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 86 68 96 70 / 20 10 0 10 Canyon TX 83 66 92 68 / 10 0 0 10 Clarendon TX 85 68 93 71 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 84 64 95 65 / 20 10 0 10 Guymon OK 87 66 96 67 / 10 0 0 10 Hereford TX 85 67 95 69 / 20 0 0 10 Lipscomb TX 91 71 98 73 / 0 0 0 10 Pampa TX 87 69 96 72 / 10 0 0 10 Shamrock TX 89 69 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 89 70 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...38