-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
824
FXUS64 KAMA 130750
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
250 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
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(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Based on the 13th 00Z upper air sounding the combined Panhandles
are sitting under northerly flow aloft. GOES-16 water vapor
imagery shows the anti-cyclonic flow from a ridge to the west over
the Four Corners Region that is bringing this northerly flow
aloft. Further west is cyclonic flow aloft off the south coast of
CA. Based on model analysis this is a cutoff low that is progged
to eventually break away from the Pacific and traverse the
northwestern half of the combined Panhandles as an open wave
Friday night. This closed low is expected to be on the southern
tip of NV by this evening as the ridge builds into the area.

With the ridge expected to build into the area, H5 heights around
590 dam should increase to around 594 dam this afternoon. This
will allow H85 temperatures to warm near 27-28 degrees C over
Amarillo and 33-35 degrees C over Cimarron County. Much warmer
temperatures are expected today because of this especially across
the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles. Much of the
north to northwestern combined Panhandles are expected to see high
temperatures in the triple digits. Even potentially hitting 105.
However, with dewpoints in the 50s to 60s most of the area may
not warm to quite that high, with most places capping at 103 to
104 with Heat Advisories should not be needed. High clouds should
also increase over the combined Panhandles late today helping to
cap overall heating. PDC should not need a Heat Advisory either,
as much cooler H85 temperatures will be found further south and
east.

As the ridge builds in over the area flow aloft will become more
northwesterly this afternoon into evening. A few perturbations in
the northwest flow may even spark some showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the northern combined Panhandles. The most likely time
for this to start will be around 00Z. However, the HRRR suggest it
could start in Cimarron County by 18Z to 19Z. There is still some
uncertainty to the amount of coverage storms will have into the
combined Panhandles as most of the activity might stay in CO/KS.
If storms do form they may potentially be severe with damaging
winds the main threat as DCAPE values will be approaching 1800
J/Kg with LCL heights around 3km or more.

As the aforementioned upper low off of CA approaches the FA
tomorrow as an open wave, H5 heights should start to decrease a
bit. This should keep daytime temperatures cooler than today with
much of the area only hitting the mid 90s. This shortwave passage
will also add increased PoPs going into Friday night, mainly in
the northwest combined Panhandles. Have 50 to 60 PoPs on the
higher end for tomorrow night. Once again severe storms will be
possible with mainly a wind threat.

36
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&&

.LONG TERM ...
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(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Sat through Mon, temperatures are expected to remain warm with
high pressure predominately impacting the combined Panhandles.
High temperatures are progged to be in the mid to upper 90s. Low
and mid level moisture are expected to remain high enough that
any perturbations aloft may spark some shower and thunderstorm
activity through the entire long term. Have stayed with NBM PoPs
which do have some PoPs below 15 percent Sun through Tue. Would
still not rule out the possibility of some isolated storms during
this period though. Sat night PoPs remain in the 20 to 30 range
with 20 PoPs returning Tue night. There may possibly be a slight
break down in the ridge Tue with highs on Wed being in the lower
90s instead of mid and upper 90s.

36
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

All three terminals are expected to remain VFR through much of the
06Z TAF period. Winds are expected to stay with a southerly
component and less than 15 kts through the period. Some high
clouds are expected through the period. There will be slight
chance for a thunderstorm to impact KGUY and KDHT after 00Z
Friday. However, confidence is low enough to leave out of the TAFs
for now.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX                99  68  96  67 /   0  20  10  50
Beaver OK                 105  67  99  68 /  10  30  10  30
Boise City OK             103  65  94  61 /  20  10  40  50
Borger TX                 105  71 101  69 /   0  20  10  40
Boys Ranch TX             104  68  99  66 /  10  10  10  60
Canyon TX                  99  67  95  63 /   0  10  10  50
Clarendon TX               96  67  94  68 /   0   0   0  30
Dalhart TX                101  64  96  62 /  20  10  30  60
Guymon OK                 104  66  97  64 /  20  20  20  50
Hereford TX                99  68  96  65 /   0  10  10  50
Lipscomb TX               103  68  99  68 /  10  20   0  30
Pampa TX                   99  68  96  67 /   0  20   0  30
Shamrock TX                97  68  96  68 /   0   0   0  20
Wellington TX              97  68  96  69 /   0   0   0  10
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&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36