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243
FXUS64 KAMA 200818
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
318 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
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(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Latest 08Z observations across the Panhandles shows a well
established fetch of LL moisture with Td values well into the 60s
for most locations. Latest satellite also shows upper level
moisture transport from Tropical Storm Alberto being caught up in
the main H500 anti-cyclonic flow from the main elongated high
centered over the Ohio River Valley. The main clockwise flow
continues to advect moisture into the area on the western
periphery of the H500 high pressure system. This synoptic pattern
will dictate the short term forecast period. Highest rain chances
(20-30%) will be confined to the southern and western Texas
Panhandle where perturbations from the aforementioned synoptic
high will favor these areas closest to the main moisture
transport over New Mexico. Some thunderstorms could produce some
gusty winds. But the main concern will be the potential for
localized flooding or flash flooding, especially in areas
saturated with rainfall over the past 24-48 hours. Slow moving
thunderstorms along with PWAT values in the +2 to +3 S.D. range
will aid in the flooding potential. High temperatures today and
tomorrow will range from the lower to upper 80s across the
Panhandles.

Meccariello
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&&

.LONG TERM ...
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(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Hope everyone enjoys the break from 90s and 100s, because they`re
on their way back this weekend into next week as high pressure
settles in. Occasional storm chances won`t entirely go away
though, as we could get some disturbances within zonal flow if the
ridge sets far enough south. Moisture will be slightly depleted
but not completely scoured out this weekend, with better precip
chances staying off to our west off the Rockies, possibly making
it into the western Panhandles Sat-Sun. There`s only about a
15-25% chance precipitation survives by the time it reaches our
western CWA border, but can`t be ruled out. As previously alluded
to, highs this weekend will start to rebound in the 90s to around
100 in a few spots by Sunday. The weekend will just be preheating
the Panhandles, because widespread 100s appear possible Mon-Wed.
Warming 850mb temps should peak on Tue, when highs could exceed
105 in a few locations. With all the ground moisture in place from
recent rains, heat index values may be even higher, potentially
warranting head advisories. Troughing over northern CONUS looks
to displace the core of high pressure to our west next week,
allowing northwest flow to return. Northwest flow will also
maintain daily slight chances at storms, as moisture content
improves once again.

Harrel
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Some sct to
bkn low clouds near MVFR levels through 12Z, but cigs should
remain at VFR. Winds will be out of the south and southeast at
5-15 kts with higher gusts at times.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX                83  67  86  68 /  20  20  10   0
Beaver OK                  88  68  90  71 /  10  10   0   0
Boise City OK              84  62  85  65 /  10  10  20   0
Borger TX                  90  70  92  72 /  10  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              86  67  87  68 /  20  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  81  66  84  66 /  20  20  10   0
Clarendon TX               81  66  85  68 /  20  20  10   0
Dalhart TX                 84  63  84  65 /  20  20  20  10
Guymon OK                  86  65  88  68 /  10  10  10   0
Hereford TX                83  66  85  67 /  20  30  20   0
Lipscomb TX                88  69  90  72 /  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   85  67  88  69 /  10  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                85  69  89  70 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX              85  69  90  70 /  10  10   0   0
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&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...29