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340
FXUS64 KAMA 110758
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
258 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
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(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A 500mb trough continues to transit across the southern plains
this morning departing to the east. A high pressure system will
follow up the trough building into the southern plains with the
troughs departure. This morning will still see continued active
weather as moisture associated with the trough still resides over
the region. This moisture will is causing some low clouds and
patchy fog mainly in the TX panhandle. With the rise of the sun
these low clouds will burn off. Isolated light rain showers are
still occurring in the southern TX panhandle this morning with a
low chance of these turning into thunderstorms. This shower
activity should increase for the mid to later morning hours as
additional instability occurs with daytime heating. However this
would only be a temporary bump up in activity as the moisture
amounts will be decreasing. So by the afternoon the shower
activity will dwindle and mostly cease. The exception to this
trend may be in western Cimarron county as some mid level moisture
clips it during the afternoon and evening as it moves to the NE.
The rainfall amounts for any of the rain showers or thunderstorms
will likely be on the low as the high moisture that drove all the
flooding has in large departed. The overall dynamics that will
reside over the panhandles today are weak at best so the threat
of any severe thunderstorms is very low but not zero. As the high
pressure establishes itself over the area it will bring an
increase in the temperatures with highs mainly in the 80s across
the panhandles.

Wednesday has a high chance of having the high pressure fully
established across the southern plains including the panhandles.
This will bring drier conditions to the plains with fair weather
and mostly sunny skies expected for Wednesday. Temperatures will
still be on the rise with highs for Wednesday expected to be in
the 80s to 90s.

SH
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&&

.LONG TERM ...
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(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The first signs of another pattern shift will open our long term
period Thursday as models see a 500mb trough move on shore and
interact with the upper-level high holding over the Panhandles.
This interaction may be enough for the high to give out and give
us a slight chance (10 to 15%) at showers and thunderstorms that
evening with a weak dry line looking to set up that afternoon.
Should something develop, latest models are showing decent
ingredients for strong to severe storms. However, getting
something to develop will be the challenge, with models also
placing a cap over the Panhandles. Regardless better chances will
follow that Friday as the trough forces the high back south and a
weak cold frontal boundary moves through that afternoon. This
boundary will have a short window to create showers and
thunderstorms using the ample moisture expected to be present with
models expecting PWAT values over 1 inch yet again. However behind
the front, look for much stabler conditions with chances of
percipitation quickly dwindling that night. As for Saturday and
the weekend, latest models are looking for a classic dry line
setup that afternoon with anything east of the line seeing
potential for another round of severe thunderstorms. Current model
runs do have the dry line splitting the Panhandles in half, but
confidence in this being the final solution is low given how far
out it is. Otherwise, drier southwesterly flow looks to move in
behind the full exit of trough Sunday night giving us a mostly dry
start to next week. There are some chances at showers Monday and
Tuesday afternoon thanks to some potential shortwaves, but
confidence is not too great to go beyond the 10 to 15% chance the
NBM is currently giving. As for temperatures, look for them to be
on the rise for the start of the period with each day seeing a
shot at reaching high 90s to triple digits each of their
afternoons.

Scoleri
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Low ceilings are occurring in the panhandles this morning with
MVFR to IFR conditions. These low clouds can impact all terminals
with the best time for occurrence being near sunrise. In
addition to the low clouds fog may also form this morning and
impact all terminals. The fog seems most likely where it rained
with KAMA having the best odds of it occurring on station. Rain
shower and thunderstorms may form again mainly in the southern TX
panhandle late this morning to afternoon. The odds of these
impacting any terminal are currently not high enough to reflect in
the TAFs. Otherwise winds will remain light at all terminals
through the rest of today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX                82  62  90  64 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  87  62  96  67 /  10  10   0   0
Boise City OK              85  61  96  62 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  87  63  95  66 /  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              86  62  95  66 /  10  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  82  61  90  62 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               79  61  86  64 /  30  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 85  59  94  61 /   0  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  86  61  95  62 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                83  61  92  64 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                85  62  92  65 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   82  61  89  64 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                82  62  88  65 /  30   0   0   0
Wellington TX              82  63  88  65 /  40  10   0   0
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&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98