-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
469
FXUS64 KAMA 240921
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
421 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
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(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The main headline through the short term (and the rest of the
week) will be the hot temperatures. Temperatures will continue to
slowly increase both today and tomorrow, with Tuesday featuring
widespread highs at or just above the century mark. Additionally,
some showers or storms may develop late on Tuesday across the
Panhandles, providing some relief from the hot temperatures.

A few isolated rain showers remain across the central/southern
Texas Panhandle early this morning. The showers will continue to
dissipate through the morning hours. With cloud cover over the
region this morning, temperatures will likely bottom out in the
70s for most areas across the Panhandles. High pressure will
continue to remain across much of the southern CONUS today with
the center of the H500 high slowly drifting off to the west. Weak
west to northwest flow should prevail across the Southern High
Plains today which will aid in developing a weak leeside low
across eastern Colorado by mid day. The surface pressure gradient
will tighten across the region as a result and breezy south winds
are forecast for this afternoon, which will provide a little
relief from the hot temperatures. Highs today will be in the upper
90s to just over the triple digit mark. Some locations may get
close or briefly get up to 105 degrees, but confidence is not high
enough to issue any Heat Advisories for any locations for today. A
weak disturbance may be able to kick off some showers and storms
across the higher terrain to the west late this afternoon into the
evening. Model guidance does not agree with how far east and
southeast the storms may get tonight, so have kept in the non
mentionable NBM PoPs for now.

Center of high pressure should remain across New Mexico on Tuesday
and is forecast to become slightly stronger, this will turn flow
aloft to out of the northwest to north during the daytime hours on
Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday morning will start a couple of
degrees warmer than they will this morning and combined with
stronger WAA at the lower levels, temperatures should easily rise
to just over 100 degrees for most of the Panhandles. Additionally,
with dew points remaining on the higher end, this is not expected
to be our typical dry heat the region usually sees. Some
locations, in particular across the eastern Panhandles, are
forecast to have heat index values a few degrees above the air
temperature which may cause heat related issues on Tuesday
afternoon. With confidence continuing to increase in potential
heat related issues, have issued a Heat Advisory for the eastern
Panhandles and Palo Duro Canyon. The advisory may need to be
expanded further west should confidence increase in the higher
temperatures or higher dew points than currently expected. Relief
from the heat may come late in the day as plenty of moisture still
looks to remain over the High Plains and a weak disturbance should
generate some scattered showers and storms by the evening hours on
Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected given weak shear
and CAPE values around 1000 J/kg. However, with PWAT values still
around 1 to 1.25 inches, moderate to heavy rainfall will be
possible. Storms will also be slow movers as the steering flow
aloft is very weak so some isolated areas of flash flooding will
be possible. Temperatures Tuesday night should be a bit cooler and
some locations may even drop into the mid 60s by early Wednesday
morning.

Muscha
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Once again little change was made to the long term periods compared
to what was assessed in the numerical weather models 24 hours ago.
The main message continues to be the heat and triple digit high
temperatures Wednesday through Friday. The upper level ridge of
high pressure will be the overall dominant feature in our weather
pattern from Wednesday through Sunday. A weak cold front may move
across the region on Saturday and could temporarily bring slightly
cooler temperatures for this weekend. Otherwise, given the strength
of this ridge, high temperatures across many locations will likely
approach or exceed 100 degrees Wednesday through Friday. Heat Index
values may approach or exceed 105 degrees at times, most likely on
Wednesday and Friday across parts of the area, and additional Heat
Advisories may be needed on one or more of those days as well.
Precipitation chances Wednesday through Sunday will strongly
depend on the strength of the upper level high pressure as well as
how much of our forecast area sits beneath it. Nearly all medium
range models continue to indicate periodic meandering of the ridge
axis during the extended periods. The latest NBM pops and temperatures
remain plausible based on the forecast synoptic pattern and were
accepted with no adjustments necessary for this package.

02
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions are favored during this TAF cycle. Winds out of
the south are expected with gusts during the daytime hours upwards
of 20 to 25 kts. High clouds will remain over the terminals over
the next 24 hours.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX                98  74 102  71 /   0  10  10  30
Beaver OK                 101  74 103  68 /   0  10  10  30
Boise City OK              98  68 101  66 /  10  10  10  20
Borger TX                 103  77 106  72 /   0  10  10  30
Boys Ranch TX             101  74 104  70 /   0  10  10  30
Canyon TX                  97  72 100  70 /   0  10  10  30
Clarendon TX              100  72 103  72 /   0  10  10  20
Dalhart TX                 99  68 102  66 /   0  10  10  20
Guymon OK                 100  71 102  67 /   0  10   0  20
Hereford TX                99  72 102  70 /   0  10  10  30
Lipscomb TX               101  76 104  70 /   0  10  10  30
Pampa TX                   98  74 101  71 /   0  10  10  30
Shamrock TX               102  74 104  72 /   0   0   0  20
Wellington TX             103  75 104  74 /   0   0   0  20
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&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ005-010-015-
     020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ003.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05