-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
459
FXUS64 KAMA 160455
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

An upper level short wave trough is moving away from the Panhandles
into central Kansas.  The Panhandles are on the subsidence side of
this departing short wave, but instability and moisture continue to
linger.  The moisture and instability will likely be enough to force
some more thunderstorms to develop mainly across the southeast half
of the area, so have continued with pops there this afternoon and
evening.  Some isolated thunderstorms may try to make a run at the
northwest CWA tonight in association with another short wave trough,
so have mentioned some low chances there.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon in the northwest
along a surface trough.  The upper level forcing is not the
greatest, but with warm temperatures and low level moisture, the
instability may be enough to produce a few thunderstorms. Highs on
Sunday are expected to be about 5 to 10 degree above average.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The Panhandles look to continue this active pattern as we head
into new week. Currently models are expecting southwesterly upper-
level flow over the Panhandles thanks to a decent trough setting
up in the Pacific Northwest for Monday and Tuesday. While normally
this would result in drier weather, a few short-waves will look
to keep potential in place as they force a pseudo dry line
boundary to set up around the western Panhandles. The question
then becomes whether this boundary or the short-wave will be
enough to overcome any cap to have storms initiate. As it stands
models and guidance do not favor Monday with a 15% chance of any
precipitation present at best. However, Tuesday looks to see
better and more widespread chances for the Northern portions of
the Panhandles with chances closer to 20 to 30% for the afternoon.
Regardless should storms form either day, then potential will be
present for those storms to go severe with MLCAPE currently
projected to be greater than 1000 J/kg each afternoon.

Heading into Wednesday and the end of the week, models expect
upper-level flow to weaken quite a bit as the Panhandles fall
under the two 500mb high pressure systems holding in the east and
southwestern portions of the United States. However rather than
leaving us dry, this set up will allow for good southeasterly flow
in the lower levels, which will allow for good moisture to move
over the area. As it stands, most models are already calling for
PWATs to once again be over one inch for the most of the
Panhandles clear into the weekend. This will also, lead to chances
of thunderstorms and showers every afternoon with current best
chances (25 to 35%) be seen by the models on Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, look for this moisture to keep us
to a more seasonable normal temperature scale with most locations
in the 80s to low 90s for afternoon high temperatures.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Can`t
rule out a shower or thunderstorm impacting KDHT or KGUY tonight,
but confidence is low. Amendments will be made if confidence
increases. Breezy southerly winds are expected during the daytime
today and through at least a portion of the nighttime.
Thunderstorms are possible at KDHT this afternoon, and perhaps at
KGUY and KAMA, but confidence is very low at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Amarillo TX                92  67  93  70 /  20  30   0  10
Beaver OK                  93  67  97  70 /  30  20  10  10
Boise City OK              92  64  97  66 /  10  10  20   0
Borger TX                  95  70  99  72 /  20  20   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              94  66  97  70 /  20  20  10  10
Canyon TX                  91  65  93  68 /  20  30   0   0
Clarendon TX               90  67  91  69 /  20  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 92  63  97  65 /  10  20  10   0
Guymon OK                  92  65  97  67 /  20  20  10  10
Hereford TX                92  66  95  69 /  20  20   0  10
Lipscomb TX                93  68  96  70 /  20  20  10  10
Pampa TX                   91  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
Shamrock TX                92  69  93  70 /  10  20  10   0
Wellington TX              94  70  95  71 /  10  20  10   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52