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271
FXUS61 KBGM 270147
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
947 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Quiet conditions return to the region through the end of the
work week, though a passing shower or two will be possible
Thursday across portions of Central New York. The next system
moves in this weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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930 PM Update...

Quite the active evening for severe weather over NEPA has
finally subsided. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has subsided and
scattered rain showers and drizzle remain over the region,
which will continue to move east as the night progresses.
Highest chance for rain showers will be over NEPA and the
Catskills as another wave of rain showers looks to clip our
area. Flooding chances have also gone down as rain rates dropped
off after the convection subsided. We will continue to monitor
Luzerne county as heavy rain fell there earlier and the
northern portion of moderate rainfall may enter the area in a
few hours. The rest of the forecast remains on track.


620 PM Update...

The watch was dropped for Steuben and Chemung Counties with this
update. The best conditions for strong to severe storms remains
across NEPA. Multiple warnings have already been issued in the
Northern Tier and Wyoming Valley. The watch was kept for the
rest of the Southern Tier in CNY in case something can get going
up there but that seems unlikely. There continues to be a risk
for localized issues. Areas that see multiple thunderstorms
within a short period of time would have the best chance for any
localized flooding.

With the rain moving through, temperatures dropped significantly
but are slower to drop eastward where rain is just now moving
in. With extensive rain and cloud cover, temperatures will
remain on the cooler end. Because of this, temps were reduced
through the evening hours.

245 PM Update...

The layer of clouds that moved into the region earlier today drifted
north and stratocumulus popped up in the clear areas across NEPA and
the Southern Tier. This is essentially where models had the
instability and where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued.
Thunderstorms have popped up west of the region. SPC mesoanalysis
shows instability right along the NY/PA border and areas south.
Across CNY, conditions dried out with mixing this afternoon as
dewpoints have dropped back into 50s. So there is uncertainty with
how far north strong to severe thunderstorms will be.

Widespread rain showers will impact the region. Current PWATs are
1.1 to 1.4 inches across the region but could increase to around 1.8
throughout the afternoon. As a result, rainfall rates could exceed 1
in/hr. While FFG is lower across CNY than NEPA, conditions have been
dry recently, so that may help us with any hydro concerns. Still,
localized ponding and flooding in poor drainage areas cannot be
ruled out.

Showers move out late tonight. Cooler air begins to filter into the
region, which will help temps fall into the 50s and 60s. With
clearing and the added moisture, patchy fog may develop. A weak wave
will pass through in the morning hours and may kick off isolated
showers across north-central NY. Anything that can develop will
drift south but dry up before reaching the Southern Tier. Thursday
will be noticeable cooler as temperatures will only reach the 70s
and low 80s. Skies will be clear and winds will be light which
should then lead to good radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall
into the 40s and 50s with patchy valley fog expected to develop late
Thursday night/early Friday morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1750 PM Update...

Capped the short term period at Friday as high pressure will
still be overhead during the day, but pushes east Friday night.

Previous Discussion...

Quiet weather on Friday with high pressure centered over our
region. Mostly sunny skies are expected with temperatures
climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will begin to
move in Friday evening as the next system approaches. Lows will
return to normal with temperatures ranging in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1750 PM Update...

High pressure pushes east out into the Atlantic Friday night and
deep SW return flow will bring moisture advection into the
region on Saturday. Models have remained consistent with the 12Z
cycle with PWATs progged to increase to 2"+, which is close to 3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms with torrential downpours
will be likely with localized flash flooding possible. At this
time, the severe thunderstorm potential appears low for Saturday
afternoon, as ongoing rainfall and clouds over the area should
limit instability. High pressure will build back into the region
the start of next week with cooler and dry conditions expected.


Previous discussion...

Low pressure system tracks east and into our region on Saturday
along with a warm front producing showers and thunderstorms. Deep SW
return flow advects warm air and moisture into our region with PWAT
values 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Model soundings also
show a deep warm cloud layer up to 13K feet suggesting heavy
downpours and localized flash flooding is possible. Cold front from
this system will push through on Sunday with more showers and
thunderstorms. Model guidance shows an additional wave dipping
into our region on Monday, which could increase pops, but
decided to stick with the NBM this far out. Otherwise upper
level ridge moves into the region on Tuesday with drier
conditions returning. Another system approaches our area by
Wednesday with more possible showers.

Temperatures during this period fluctuate with highs mostly ranging
in the mid 70s to upper 80s and lows in the 60s. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler on Monday behind the cold front with
highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers have spread across the region. Thunderstorms remain
possible at AVP and BGM for the next couple of hours. The rest
of the terminals should see just rain. Ceilings are showers to
fall but visibilities have been reduced. These showers will last
until around 03 to 06z before they move out of the region.
Ceilings will drop and remain at MVFR to Fuel Alt through the
early morning hours. Behind the departing showers, fog may
develop but there is some uncertainty if this will happen and
how low visibilities will be. Fog/mist was added at all
terminals but visibilities were capped at 4 miles. By around
12z, skies will scatter out and all terminals will be VFR. With
the variable conditions expected through the evening and
overnight hours, some amendments may be needed to capture any
changes in observed conditions.

Light and variable winds are expected through the overnight
hours. West-northwest winds become stronger by mid to late
morning on Thursday with gusts around 15 kts.

Outlook...


Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/JTC
SHORT TERM...ES/MPK
LONG TERM...ES/MPK
AVIATION...BTL