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440
FXUS61 KBGM 051323
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
923 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm and humid day today with late afternoon scattered
showers and thunderstorms around. A period of steadier rain and
embedded thunderstorms moves through tonight into Thursday. An upper
level low then brings and unsettled, cooler and showery weather
pattern for Friday and the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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920 AM Update...

No major changes to the near term forecast; updated current and
near-term temperatures. Chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms increase from west-to-east across Central NY and
NE PA starting in the mid-afternoon.


645 AM Update

Starting off a little cooler than expected in the valley
locations, which dipped down into the 50s. Skies are clear from
Binghamton and Syracuse north and east...with scattered to
broken mid and higher level clouds back to the southwest across
NE PA and the Central Southern Tier of NY. CAMs continue to show
it remaining generally dry through mid-afternoon today, then
showers only very slowly expand from west to east heading into
the evening hours. Overall, no significant changes were needed
with the sunrise update.

420 AM Update

Main concerns in the near term will be the potential for
thunderstorms later this afternoon, tonight and again on Thursday.
Some of these storms could produce heavy downpours with an isolated
risk for excessive rainfall and perhaps some poor drainage flooding
issues. WPC has the area under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall this evening and tonight...then the Catskills and Mohawk
Valley is still in a marginal risk on Thursday as well.

Today starts off quiet with mostly sunny skies this morning. Clouds
gradually increase from SW to NE through the day. Latest CAMs show a
few showers or t`storms developing by 3-5 PM over the western Finger
Lakes region. The rest of the forecast area is now trending drier
through the day. It will be another warm day, and more humid as dew
points rise well into the 60s. Daytime highs will range from the
upper 70s to mid-80s...except upper 80s to near 90 for the Syracuse
metro area and Mohawk Valley region.

A warm frontal boundary then approaches this evening, moving east-
northeast across PA and into the NY southern tier with showers and a
chance of thunderstorms. By this time MUCAPE is falling to just a
few hundred J/Kg at best, but PWATs are rising between 1.6 to 1.8
inches...which is  2 to 2.5 standard deviations above average for
early June. This will combine with warm cloud layer depths around
11k ft thick to bring the potential for very efficient, and locally
heavy rainfall. This moisture laden pattern persists overnight, with
most of the guidance showing the heaviest rain potential over NE PA,
the Catskills and perhaps into the NY southern tier region...further
north across CNY the CAMs are showing lighter rainfall amounts.
Otherwise, tonight will be warm and humid with lows in the 60s
areawide. Rainfall amounts could be locally over 1" where the
heaviest showers/storms develop.

By Thursday morning, this initial band of rain/storms will be moving
east, out of the CWA across the Catskills. There could be a brief
lull in the rainfall activity, before the main front swings through
mid morning to early afternoon from west it east. This will bring
another round of rain and t`storms to the region. PWATs remain
somewhat elevated as this front moves through; around 1.50 inches.
MUCAPE also builds out ahead of this boundary, perhaps between 500-
1000 J/kg east of I-81 by midday. This could initiate more convection
and thunderstorms which could in turn produce more locally heavy
downpours. Storm total rainfall will be highly variable over
the region, but generally between a 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch; except
higher (up to 2") in areas that see more thunderstorm activity.

After 2 PM Thursday, the latest guidance is in fairly good
agreement that winds will turn westerly, ushering a
progressively drier air mass. PWATs fall to between 0.75 to 1.1
inch and surface dew points slide back into the mid-50s to
lower 60s. This air mass will no longer be conducive to heavy
rain threats. However, still cannot rule out some isolated to
scattered pop up shower and a slight chance for a thunderstorms
in the afternoon and early evening hours. Skies will see partial
clearing, trending toward mostly sunny conditions late in the
day. This late day clearing and drying will allow daytime maxes
to still reach the mid-70s to lower 80s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM Update...

An upper level trough sitting over the region will be the main
weather driver for the forecast period, bringing unsettled
weather.

Isolated shower chances remain Thursday night as a shortwave
pushes east of the region and a cold front drags through the
CWA. We loose the deep moisture as the shortwave exits so any
showers that do remain should be brief and light. Temps Thursday
night will be cooler than the night before, but still above
average for early June, dropping into the mid to upper 50s.

Friday will see a brief quiet period in the morning before
another shortwave digs into the region and brings chances for
afternoon/evening rain showers and thunderstorms. The moisture
available for this shortwave will be much lower as it will come
from central Canada and the Great Lakes. PWATs under 1 inch are
expected and QPF amounts are expected to be under 0.25in. Temps
on Friday will be cooler with WNW flow across the region behind
the cold front. Highs in the mid 60s to low 70s are expected.

Chances for isolated rain showers remain Friday night with the
upper level trough overhead and a weak shortwave moving into the
region. The best chance for showers will be north of the
Southern Tier, but chances are low(less than 30%). Temps Friday
night will be in the low to mid 50s.

Rain chances remain across the area Saturday as another
shortwave ripples through the longwave trough overhead. Moisture
is lacking again without a tropical airmass available so QPF
during the day Saturday is currently expected to be up to
0.10in. With the continued WNW flow pushing the cooler Canadian
airmass overhead, temps Saturday will top out in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 AM Update...

The upper level trough will remain overhead through Monday,
bringing chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
Sunday and Monday. The pattern shifts Monday night as ridging
builds into the area and the upper level trough finally moves
eastward. Some uncertainty remains as to how fast the ridge will
be able to kick the showers out, so we may see some rain showers
Tuesday, but the trend is leaning towards it being dry. Temps in
the 60s for Sun and Mon, but a warming trend begins Tuesday
with the return of SW flow, pushing highs into the low to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
655 AM Update

VFR conditions are expected for our taf sites through the
afternoon and early evening hours.

CIGs then quickly lower from south to north as an area of rain
and possible embedded thunderstorms move into the region. AVP,
ELM and BGM become MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt between 00-03z
Thursday...then ITH by around 04z and finally SYR/RME by 06-08z.
IFR conditions are then likely at all of our taf sites (except
SYR) by around 04z at AVP, 06z at ELM/BGM, then between 07-09z
IFR conditions overspread ITH and RME. The chance for
thunderstorms was still too low to include in any of the tafs at
this time; but AVP likely has the highest probabilities and a
PROB30 or tempo group may be added here if confidence does
indeed increase.

Winds become southerly/southwest later this morning at 8-15 kts,
then turn back southeasterly in the evening hours.

Outlook...

Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms around with
MVFR Fuel Alt and even IFR restrictions likely. Lifting back to
mainly VFR after around 18z Thursday afternoon.


Thursday night through Sunday...

Occasional showers with brief restrictions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...KL/MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM